Kenya’s election heralds a change in leadership

When a UK politician known equally for her religion as for her politics said of her own party leader that “there’s something of the night about him”, it stuck. The same could be said of William... 

The Sudan-Russia nexus

Sudan’s Islamist-led military is seeking to consolidate its control of the country, assumed in an October 25, 2021, coup d’état, through deception, extreme violence, abduction, suppression and... 

Upcoming elections a test for Kenya’s new Constitution

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – the more things change, the more they stay the same – comes to mind when casting a casual eye over Kenya’s August Presidential and Parliamentary... 

Elon Musk promises a return to social media Wild West

Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema is famous for his expert use of social media platforms. His opponents taunted him as the President only on social media – until the quiet crowds of his young... 

Nigeria’s oligarchs face pressure as Presidential candidates emerge

As international businesses scurry to close off any links to Russia’s sanctioned political and oligarch class, some of Nigeria’s politicians and would-be politicians may start to feel a little... 

Russia in Africa

“You can focus on the details of contracts and modelling in risk management but it’s the big events – like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – that can literally wipe out your balance sheet.” These... 

Ethiopian leader pushing ahead with economic reforms, despite the armed conflict in Tigray

I recently received a horrifying message from a friend in Guinea-Bissau. She had narrowly escaped death while working in the Presidency during the failed coup on February 1. “When the shooting... 

New Omicron variant takes volatility and uncertainty to new levels

The end of the year is traditionally when we muse about the year gone by as we look to the one ahead. This is difficult at the best of times, but the Covid-19 pandemic has taken volatility and... 

Angola – taking on the oligarch-kleptocrats

As Angola takes on the oligarch-kleptocrats and makes meaningful reforms, investors start to notice, but is it too late to woo voters? Rio Tinto’s signing in early October of a diamond mining... 

From Francafrique to France-Africa

That France’s special relationship with Frenching-speaking nations, known as Françafrique, is undergoing a fundamental transformation would not have been obvious at the 28th Afrique-France Summit,... 

Of prisons and Presidencies

What links a military coup in the ‘wildest west’ of West Africa and the less media-glamorous landslide election victory in Zambia? West Africa has turned back the regional political clock to the... 

The corrupt’s horizons are narrowing

Do three significant events in the subregion signify a trend? First, although the trial of South Africa’s former president, Jacob Zuma, may have been postponed to September 9, the so-called Arms... 

Be careful what you wish for . . .

In this opinion piece, African Risk Consulting's Tara O’Connor and Raphael Korber-Hoffman review recent security developments across the African continent Two events pointing to a significant shift... 

Mining the DRC: after losing some battles, Tshisekedi is winning the war

Political transitions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) do not happen too often. When they do, they are invariably violent, and the consequences of external intervention or internal... 

Kazungula: crossing into a new trade age

In aimless surfing on Twitter a couple of days ago, up popped a picture of the new Kazungula crossing. The name resonates: Kazungula. One of my earliest memories of the Kazungula was of my family... 

It’s time to dare to plan anew

A year ago, in the face of the first Covid-19 death in Egypt, I wrote that the time for governments to act was immediately and that the time for corporates to plan for a pandemic was yesterday. The... 

After the dust settles: Uganda post elections

In this opinion piece, Africa Risk Consulting’s Tara O’Connor and Fiona Grant assess the post-election picture in Uganda, where long-serving President Yoweri Museveni won a sixth term at the helm... 

Brexit: Clowns to the left of me! Jokers to the right! Stuck . . .

The most significant casualties of Brexit are the 112 000 British people who have lost their lives to Covid-19.  It was the greatest misfortune of all that they should have fallen prey to a deadly... 

Of death, debt and democracy

As the first year of the plague closes out, a second year threatens a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Africa has seen fewer infections and deaths, but the virus has had other lasting... 

Nigeria: things fall apart

When I think of Nigeria at 60, I cannot shed the image of a waking giant tied down by a myriad of criss-crossed ropes, and at the end of each rope a member of Nigeria’s elite, too many of whom are... 

Zambia’s Zuma moment

Something in the stars must have misaligned in 2016 to set the political world off kilter and bring in its wake the wanton destruction that is populism. In the UK it brought Brexit, in the US it... 

A stubborn political quartet again risk it all

Tara O’Connor and Leonard Mbulle-Nziege investigate Côte d’Ivoire’s critical October Presidential elections, in which the incumbent, Alassane Outtara, will be seeking a third term in office Its... 

UK’s DFID is brought to heel as nationalism gains ground

Poor Zambia. What did it do to deserve such unwanted attention to be misspoken of in such a manner – and in the so-called mother of all Parliaments?  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in... 

The beat goes on . . .

As South Africans emerge blinking into the winter sunlight, they do so to a ‘new normal’, including an emerging new order. Great plagues throughout history have accelerated fundamental changes that... 

What a difference a day makes . . .

As we move into a fourth week of formal lockdown and as every day merges into the next and weeks roll into each other, only punctuated by a food box delivery, I am nevertheless struck daily by the... 

The time to plan for Covid-19 was yesterday

Just as the going was getting good again, Africa faces another triple whammy: the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), a fresh global economic crash and plummeting oil prices. The deadly Covid-19, which... 

Au revoir CFA franc, bonjour l’eco!

As competition grows to gain influence across Africa, the most significant change to the traditional relationship between France and its former West African colonies will take place in June this... 

Goodbye the two-teens, hello the two-twenties!

Saying goodbye to another decade is always emotional, but it is also a time to refresh, revisit strategies and plan new ones “to boldly go”. Across Africa, the trend of the past decade and what... 

2019: year of peaceful, patient popular power

As Southern African business closes off the year in a frenzy of foreshortened deadlines before racing to the door for the summer holiday, there is barely time to reflect on the year gone by. And... 

Buhari: destructive force in the Nigerian economy

"I have come to realise that Nigeria is not going to shape the investment future of West Africa, let alone Africa”, laments my lunch guest. “Especially when you compare it WITH what is happening in... 

Ethiopian Prime Minister, marathon runner do country proud

Once in a generation comes a political leader who has the confidence, the power and the political will to transform the lives of millions.  And once in a lifetime comes an individual with the power... 

It’s time to give Angola reforms the benefit of the doubt

As the death of the region’s leading liberation leader, Robert Gabriel Mugabe, focuses attention on his poor legacy, other liberation leader transitions are thrown into relief. One such transition... 

Mozambique peace deal paves the way for unprecedented investment

What is the risk of civil war in Mozambique?  That was the question a would-be international investor asked us to address recently. While this very question used to be my weekly diet as an analyst... 

The last kick of a dying horse

If you want political analysis of Zimbabwe – ask an Uber driver.  In Cape Town earlier this year, I meet the same Uber driver twice. Typically overqualified, having been a buyer and manager for a... 

Kenya’s election open season

As dust settles on South Africa’s elections and business looks to President Cyril Ramaphosa to restore the economy, Kenyan business worries as the political elite starts kicking up dust well in...