Global zinc production is expected to ramp up over the next few years as strong zinc prices prompt miners to bring idled capacity back on line and enable new projects.

The latest ‘Global Zinc Mining Outlook’ report shows that the return of some stalled capacity and the start of new projects in key countries will drive growth over the coming quarters, despite some capacity taken off line in 2015 and 2016, owing to permanent mine closures.

“Globally, mined zinc production will continue to ramp up over the coming years as elevated prices encourage miners to restart idled capacity and begin production at key new mines,” says Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

Global zinc mine production increased by 1.6% year-on-year in 2019 to 13.2- million tons and is expected to achieve an average of 1.9% growth to 15.7-million tons by 2028.

However, China’s zinc production will stagnate, owing to declining ore grades and increasingly stringent environmental regulations, with a 0.2% yearly increase expected from 4.3-million tons in 2019 to 4.4-million tons by 2028.

While the report forecasts that China’s position will erode from 33% of global mine production in 2018 to 28% by 2028, the Asian country will remain the largest global producer of zinc by a wide margin.

Fitch Solutions further predicts that Australia’s zinc sector will gradually recover – as rising prices prompt miners to restart major operations – to achieve the second-fastest growth rate globally to 2028, with a healthy pipeline of projects.

“We forecast the country’s zinc production to increase from 940 000 t in 2018 to 1.02-million tons by 2019, supported by the fully operational Dugald River mine.

“By 2028, we expect zinc production to reach 1.3-million tons, averaging 3.4% growth year-on-year, on the back of rising zinc prices and the solid project pipeline,” it said.

India, which will increasingly drive global zinc production growth, is forecast to increase zinc output from 876 000 t in 2019 to 1.4-million tons by 2028, while output in Peru will increase from 1.6-million tons in 2018 to 2.05-million tons by 2028, recording an average 2.6% yearly growth rate.