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Africa|Export|Manufacturing|Testing|transport|Manufacturing
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While air cargo demand continues recovery, air passenger demand stalls

22nd January 2021

By: Rebecca Campbell

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

     

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The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has reported that air cargo volumes increased in November last year, compared with October. However, they were still down on the figures for November 2019. The continued parking of many passenger aircraft meant that global air cargo capacity remained constrained because of the lack of airliner belly-hold volume.

On the other hand, the recovery in global air passenger demand during last year came to a halt in November. The recovery had already been slowing since the end of the northern hemisphere summer travel period. Total passenger demand in November 2020 was 70.3% down on that in November 2019. This was almost exactly the same year-on-year decline recorded in October, which came to 70.6%.

“Air cargo demand [in November] is still down 6.6% compared to the previous year; however, we are seeing continuing month-on-month improvements,” pointed out Iata director-general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “Severe capacity constraints persist as large parts of the passenger fleet remain grounded. This will put pressure on the industry as it gears up to deliver vital Covid-19 vaccines.”

In month-on-month terms, November’s air cargo figures were up 1.6%, while October’s numbers had been 1.1% higher than those for September. At the current rate, global air cargo demand is expected to return to 2019 levels in March or April this year.

Although African carriers saw a 1.7% decline in international air cargo demand in year-on-year terms during November, Africa still recorded the second-best performance of all the Iata regions. Total air cargo demand across the continent increased by 2.6%. The decline in international traffic was caused by a 4.5% year-on-year drop on the Asia-Africa route. African carriers’ international capacity fell by 19.4% and total capacity by 20.7%.

The best-performing Iata region was North America. This registered a 1% increase in international demand and a 5% increase in total demand, year-on-year. North American carriers benefited from strong traffic to and from Asia, and from having fewer cargo capacity constraints than carriers in other regions. Air cargo capacity for North American operators was 12.7% lower than it had been in November 2019, a percentage far lower than for any other region.

All other regions continued to record year-on-year declines in air cargo demand in November. These declines (from least bad to worst) were 2.3% for the Middle East, 10.6% for the Asia-Pacific, 13.4% for Europe, and 19.2% for Latin America. In terms of total air cargo capacity, the Middle East was down by 18.7%, the Asia-Pacific by 22.7%, Europe by 24.9% and Latin America by 28.4%.

In terms of international passenger demand, the year-on-year fall in November was a little worse than the equivalent figure for October. November 2020 international demand was 88.3% below that in November 2019, while the year-on-year fall in October had been 87.6%. Domestic air passenger demand, which had been seeing relatively better recovery than international demand, also saw its improvement coming to a halt in November. Domestic traffic in November was, in year-on-year terms, down 41%. The year-on-year fall for October had been 41.1%.

The African region saw a year-on-year fall in international air passenger traffic of 76.7% in November. Yet Africa was Iata’s best-performing region! Second best was Latin America, whose carriers experienced a drop of 78.6% in international passenger demand. For North America, the collapse was 83%, for Europe 87% and for the Asia-Pacific, it was 95%.

“The already tepid recovery in air travel demand came to a full stop in November,” stated De Juniac. “That’s because governments responded to new outbreaks with even more severe travel restrictions and quarantine measures. This is clearly inefficient. Such measures increase hardship for millions. Vaccines offer the long-term solution. In the meantime, testing is the best way that we see to stop the spread of the virus and start the economic recovery. How much more anguish do people need to go through – job losses, mental stress – before governments will understand that?”

Overall, economic conditions were positive during November. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index new export orders category stayed in the growth zone in both emerging and developed markets. This was the third month in succession that the index showed growth, following two years of showing decline. And retail sales in China and the US in November were 5% higher than they had been during the previous November.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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