recovery in demand and a fifth-generation (5G) device supply side push, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 13.9% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2021 and 5.5% for the full year.

The International Data Corporation’s (IDC’s) latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker expects the global smartphone market to deliver a compound yearly growth rate of 3.6% over the 2020 to 2025 forecast period.

“Despite ongoing lockdowns and economic concerns, IDC continues to see strong demand for smartphones. We are also seeing that everyone in the value chain – from supply chains, original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and channels to consumers – is better prepared to handle any further lockdowns,” says IDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers research director Nabila Popal.

Adapting to a “pandemic lifestyle”, online channels have experienced accelerated growth, climbing to a share of 30% in 2020 from 22% in the prior year.

Further, ramp-up in production and improved channel planning, combined with strong pent-up demand, are all pointing to healthy growth in the months ahead, she says.

The two largest geographic markets, China and the US, are forecast to grow by 6% and 3.5% respectively in 2021, with the outlook in China remaining stable, despite several city-level lockdowns in January 2021.

Despite a 10% to 11% year-on-year decline for both markets in 2020, 5G development and the success of the recently launched iPhones are expected to boost shipments in 2021.

“5G remains the driving factor in the industry, accelerated further by the success of Apple’s full 5G iPhone 12 line-up,” Popal points out.

IDC expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for more than 40% of global volume in 2021, growing to 69% in 2025.

“Both factors have helped to increase the overall average selling price (ASP) for smartphones to $363 in 2021, up from $349 in IDC’s previous forecast.”

Further, increasing competition in the 5G Android space, particularly from Chinese vendors, will bring downward pressure on 5G ASPs, which are expected to drop to $404 by the end of 2025.