JPMorgan sees $4 500 gold price in fourth quarter, says risks to downside
JPMorgan said demand for gold from key sectors would not be as strong as it had expected, limiting the rise in gold prices this year to $4 300/oz in the third quarter and $4 500/oz in the fourth quarter.
The bank said the risks to its forecast skew to the downside, given possible early interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve if data were to come in hot over the balance of the summer.
As recently as June 9, JPMorgan had said it expected gold prices to rise to $6,000 by year end.
On Friday, spot gold was up 1.3% at $4 174.21 per ounce at 1241 GMT, after hitting its highest since June 23. Bullion was up over 2% for the week so far.
High interest rates would weigh on non-yielding bullion as investors turn to assets that offer better returns.
The bank retained a long-term bullish view, saying gold could extend gains in 2027 as central bank purchases and physical demand strengthen amid enduring structural drivers of accumulation.
It also forecast silver prices to average $60 to $65 per ounce over its outlook horizon as the market moves away from last year's tight physical conditions and the gold-to-silver ratio normalizes.
Platinum prices are expected to average about $1 800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and rise to around $1 950 per ounce by the end of 2027, supported by supply-side fundamentals in South Africa.
The bank forecasts palladium prices at $1 350 per ounce by end-2026, and expects it to average around $1 300 in 2027, in line with broader weakness across the precious metals complex.
Article Enquiry
Email Article
Save Article
Feedback
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here
Research Reports
Projects
Latest News
Showroom
From batteries for boats and jet skis, to batteries for cars and quad bikes, SABAT Batteries has positioned itself as the lifestyle battery of...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Complete range of security sealing solutions including security seals bags and labels.
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
