Imminent trade conditions recovery unlikely – Sacci
Local labour militancy, global economic uncertainty, growing domestic input price pressures and the volatile rand would lower the outlook for trade conditions in the first few months of 2013, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) revealed in its December trade conditions survey.
The trade activity index fell by 15 points to 42 in December, down from the 57 points recorded in November.
The chamber stated that all subcomponents of trade activity performed negatively between November and December, while a substantial decline in sales and new order in December “set trade activity levels back by about six months”.
Further, the greater-than-inflation increases in labour costs, higher utility tariffs and the volatility of the rand affected input prices and threatened trade margins, as tight trade conditions kept selling prices from accommodating costs.
In addition, employment in the trade environment slipped in December and moved into negative territory, despite temporary seasonal employment opportunities in retail trade, effecting a decline in the employment index by two points to 29.
However, the report noted that employment prospects for the next six months might improve, as the employment outlook index increased from 47 to 53 points in December.
Meanwhile, Sacci reported that the trade expectations index (TEI) had recovered lost ground, increasing from 51 points in November to 60 points in December.
“The TEI is again closing the year on an optimistic note and is slightly higher than the 59 points of a year ago. The TEI average of 59 points for 2012 was the same as in 2011,” Sacci stated.
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