South Africa’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded to 3% in the second quarter of 2013, up from the 0.9% rise in the first quarter of the year, on the back of a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

On a year-on-year basis, second-quarter economic growth came in at 2%, up slightly on the 1.9% year-on-year growth achieved in the corresponding period last year.

The manufacturing sector recorded quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.5%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to the overall GDP growth for the quarter, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported on Tuesday.

Investec Group economist Annabel Bishop explained that the sector’s growth was mainly the result of a rebound from the 0.9% recorded in the first quarter, when a fire at an ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) plant impacted on manufacturing output.

Excluding the distortion effect caused by the AMSA furnace outages in the first quarter, the actual performance of the manufacturing sector was 2.6%, said Investec Bank’s Kamilla Kaplan.

“Without the rebound, GDP would have recorded growth closer to 1% in the second quarter,” she said.

Banking group Nedbank, noting the market’s expectation of the improvement in GDP off the low base in the first quarter, said that similar growth was unlikely to continue into the third quarter.

“Already the third quarter has seen industrial action in the motor vehicle, construction and gold mining industries, which will negatively impact third-quarter growth. Our forecast for full-year growth is 2%, down from the 2.5 % recorded in 2012,” the banking group said.

Nomura International strategist Peter Attard Montalto, in a note to clients, said that the GDP growth at 2% year-on-year surprised the firm, which had initially forecast year-on-year growth at 1.7%. But he stated that there was “little cause for optimism” as underlying economic growth “looked weak and future drivers unclear”.

“Growth in many sectors remains very weak, especially in mining and construction,” he commented, adding that only business services growth seemed healthy and sustainable.

Nomura revised its GDP year-end forecast downwards from 2.1% to 2%, while Bishop forecast the growth for the full year reaching “at most” 2.3%, with a risk that it could come out lower.

“The growth potential of the South African economy is estimated at 3.5% to 4% year-on-year, an actual GDP reading below this implies a negative output gap. There is little evidence of demand-led inflation pressures currently, with consumer price pressure stemming instead from exogenous factors such as rand weakness and high administered price increases,” Bishop added.

Meanwhile, Nedbank noted that, including the manufacturing sector, seven of the ten industries reviewed by Stats SA recorded an improvement in growth compared with the first quarter.

The banking group cited the 0.8-percentage-point contribution by the finance and real estate industry, which made up 21.5% of GDP in 2012, owing to increased activity in the banking sector and financial services.

The wholesale, retail and motor trade and the catering and accommodation sectors contributed 0.4 percentage points to the quarterly growth number.

However, GDP was still weighed down by the mining and quarrying industry, which contracted -0.3 of a percentage point, and the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry, contributing -0.1 of a percentage point.

Lower production in the mining of gold, the mining of ‘other’ metal ores, including platinum, and ‘other’ mining and quarrying, including diamonds, dragged down economic activity in the mining and quarrying industry and led to a negative growth of 5.6%.