With production losses in KwaZulu-Natal expected to reach R574-million, for cane growers in the drought-stricken areas of the province, “the loss is great”, Canegrowers Research Department analysis shows.

Further, rehabilitation costs of some R274-million were expected, as well as a potential loss of earnings for the workforce of about R72-million.

“It is important to note that this is not an industrywide drought and the three northern irrigated areas, which supply 30% of South Africa’s cane production, have not been too adversely affected by drought,” Canegrowers executive director David Wayne said in a statement.

The South African Weather Service’s Seasonal Climate Watch for February to June noted that most of the forecast models showed that the El Niño Southern Oscillation would remain in a weak El Niño condition for the rest of the summer season up to autumn.

The forecasting system was expected to con-tinue to indicate below-normal rainfall conditions for late summer to autumn, with the maximum and minimum temperatures tending to be cooler. “However, other international forecasting systems indicate a warmer and drier late summer season,” noted the national organisation, representing South Africa’s 23 866 cane growers.

The lack of rainfall began in the summer of 2013 and was followed by a dry spring in 2014, which caused the dry period to develop into a “serious livelihood threatening drought”, now severely affecting the KwaZulu-Natal north coast, Tugela, Zululand and certain parts of the south coast region.

Wayne said, “while welcome, recent rainfall would have little impact on the existing crop” as, with a ten-year life span, cane growers spent the first four years paying off planting costs and only started to recoup those costs from year five.

As a result, growers who replanted after the 2010/11 drought were still paying for that replant and were facing the prospect of having to borrow money to replant again.

“Many growers are already in a stretched financial position owing to ongoing input cost increases and a protracted period of low returns for sugar cane production. “Those growers will face the 2015/16 season with limited means to implement proper crop (ratoon) management,” Wayne commented.

Labour retention was another concern faced by cash-stressed farms.