As mobile-cellular penetration rates are expected to reach saturation levels by the end of 2014, new research, released by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) on Monday, showed that developing countries were leading the uptake of mobile- and fixed-broadband subscriptions, and Internet use.

According to the ITU, mobile-cellular growth rates had reached their lowest-ever level, growing at 2.6% globally, which indicated that the market was approaching saturation levels; however, mobile-cellular subscriptions were expected to reach nearly seven-billion by year-end.

“The increase is mostly due to growth in the developing world, where mobile-cellular subscriptions will account for 78% of the world’s total … with 3.6-billion [of these mobile subscriptions] in the Asia-Pacific region,” the organisation said.

Africa and Asia-Pacific, both of which had the world’s lowest penetration rates, would have the strongest mobile-cellular growth, reaching penetration levels of 69% and 89% respectively by the end of 2014.
The report pointed out that penetration rates in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – the region with the highest penetration – the Arab States, the Americas and Europe had already reached levels above 100% and were expected to grow at a muted 2% in 2014.

Meanwhile, growth in fixed-broadband penetration, which was slowing in both developed and developing countries, would have a global penetration of 10% by year-end, while mobile-broadband penetration was approaching 32%, the ITU noted.

Mobile-broadband penetration in developed countries was expected to reach 84% – four times higher than that of developing countries at an expected 21%.

ITU commented that Europe held the highest mobile-broadband penetration levels at 64%, followed by the Americas, with 59%, CIS with 49%, the Arab States at 25%, Asia-Pacific with 23% and Africa with 19%.

However, despite this, 55% of the 2.3-billion mobile-broadband subscriptions expected by year-end would emerge from the developing world.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific and Europe recorded 44% and 25% respectively of all fixed-broadband subscriptions, compared with Africa, which accounted for less than 0.5% of the world’s fixed-broadband subscriptions.

“Despite double-digit growth over the last four years, penetration in Africa remains very low,” the firm pointed out, adding that in addition to Africa, the Arab States and CIS were the only regions with double-digit fixed-broadband penetration growth rates.

Further, while home Internet access was approaching saturation levels in developed countries, it continued to climb in emerging economies, as more than 90% of the people who were not yet using the Internet were from the developing world.

By the end of 2014, the number of Internet users globally was expected to reach nearly three-billion, with Internet-user penetration rising to 44% globally – 78% in developed countries and 32% in developing countries.

Despite Africa’s continued household Internet access double-digit growth rates, only about one out of ten households would be connected to the Internet compared with the more than one out of two households in the CIS.

However, almost 20% of Africa’s population would be online by the end of the year, compared with the 10% registered in 2010.

Europe would boast the highest Internet penetration at 75%, followed by the Americas, where close to two out of three people would be using the Internet by year-end.

As 2015 neared, one-third of the Asia-Pacific population would be online, representing about 45% of the world’s Internet users.