The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Business Confidence Index (BCI) dipped to a 2016 low in September – in fact, the lowest since July 1985’s index of 90.2 – resulting in a markedly lower average index for the first three quarters of this year than the comparable prior-year period.

The BCI slipped to 90.3 in September, 2.6 index points lower than the 92.9 measured in August and 4.1 lower than in September 2015.

An “unpredictable and turbulent” period over the last year had a significant negative impact on business confidence and the “business mood”, with the BCI averaging 93.4 points for the first three quarters of 2016 – a 7.7 index point drop from the average of 101.1 during the comparative period last year.

“Additional domestic uncertainty beyond normal economic and business developments caused further interruption of an already unpredictable business climate.

The more transparent and enlightened atmosphere that followed the local government elections in the beginning of August, nevertheless, still holds the promise of an improved business climate,” Sacci averred on Wednesday.

The BCI recorded an average of 93.1 in the first quarter of this year – down 11.5 index points on the average of 104.6 reported in the corresponding quarter last year. It ticked up by one point to 94.1 in the second quarter, before falling back to an average of 93.1 in the third quarter of the year.

“The economy and South Africa in general are faced by multifacet challenges and uncertainties. The most pressing of the present stance is the lack of confidence, notably by investors. Productive investment remains the panacea for future economic growth and job creation,” the organisation noted.

Sacci pointed out that four of the seven subindices improved in September, compared with the two improvements recorded in the preceding month, indicating a recovering real business environment.

However, none of the six financial subindices improved compared with August’s levels, while inflation and real financing cost remained unchanged month-on-month.

“Positive monthly contributions to the [September] BCI mainly came from merchandise import and export volumes, energy and more new-vehicles sold. The largest negative monthly impact on the BCI came from the real value of building plans passed, the US dollar price of platinum and gold, manufacturing output and share prices,” Sacci explained.

On a yearly basis, the reverse was true, with the largest negative year-on-year contributions to the BCI coming from merchandise import and export volumes, real financing costs and new-vehicles sold.

“Weak but positive year-on-year impacts on the business climate compared with September 2015 came from the US dollar prices of gold and platinum and manufacturing output – similar to last month,” Sacci said.