BC expected to top export growth charts in 2 yrs, coal hit hard
TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Back-to-back double-digit increases will vault British Columbia's (BC’s) international exports to the top of the growth charts over the next two years, despite the expectation that coal exports will decline by 12% in 2013, Export Development Canada's (EDC’s) ‘Global Export Forecast’ report has found.
EDC chief economist Peter Hall on Thursday said BC's exports were expected to grow by 11% this year and by 12% in 2014.
The energy sector, which is an important contributor to the province's exports and accounts for about 27% of total international sales, was however, expected to decline 4% this year, ahead of 10% growth in 2014.
Coal, the largest subsector by far, was hard hit by the sharp price declines that took hold late last year. "We expect coal exports to shrink 12% this year. At the same time, natural gas will benefit from higher prices through 2014, but volumes will decline as producers find it very hard to compete with lower-priced US shale gas. Significant long-term growth is expected only once sizable liquid natural gas terminal capacity comes on line,” Hall said.
Industrial goods (metals and ores) contribute 20% of the province's total exports and BC’s recent mining expansions would drive strong, double-digit gains for each of the next two years, Hall said.
He pointed out BC’s exports were on track for a vibrant expansion, sharing the top spot among the provinces with Nova Scotia.
"BC is enjoying an exceptional recovery in forestry and very strong gains in ores and metals. Following recent ups-and-downs, BC is in an international sales sweet spot this year and next,” he noted.
The forestry sector accounts for about 32% of the province's international sales, the largest share of BC’s total exports. Hall predicted that provincial exports of forestry products would grow by 25% this year, and another 17% in 2014, after recording only 2% growth in 2012.
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