Africa’s aviation industry fares poorly compared with global standards
African airlines were expected to post a collective profit of $100-million for a net margin of 0.8%, or $1.59, a passenger, International Air Transport Association (Iata) said on Monday.
Although in the black, this continued the relatively poor performance of the continent’s aviation industry over the last few years.
Last year, traffic growth for African airlines was weak as a result of various problems that disrupted tourism, but market share also continued to be lost. Paired with weak currencies, particularly for oil exporters, the benefits of lower fuel prices would also be limited in this region.
African airlines were also expected to see the slowest growth among developing markets with capacity and demand expansion of 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively, this year.
Despite the sullen outlook for Africa, Iata expected all regions to see an improvement in profitability in 2015 compared with 2014. The association saw an upward revision of its 2015 industry outlook to a $29.3-billion net profit. On expected revenues of $727-billion, the industry would achieve a 4% net profit margin.
“This significant strengthening from the $16.4-billion net profit [of] 2014 [is] the net impact of several global factors, including stronger global economic prospects, record load factors, lower fuel prices and a major appreciation of the US dollar,” the association said in a statement.
Further, there were, as proven by Africa’s story, stark differences in regional economies, which also reflected in airline performance. “The industry’s fortunes are far from uniform. Many airlines still face huge challenges,” Iata director-general and CEO Tony Tyler said.
Over half the airline industry’s global profit, roughly $15.7-billion, was expected to be generated by airlines based in North America, which might see margins on earnings before interest and taxation exceed 12%, more than double that of the next best performing regions of Asia-Pacific and Europe.
“For the airline business, 2015 is turning out to be a positive year. Since the tragic events of September 2001, the global airline industry has transformed itself with major gains in efficiency.
“This is clearly evident in the expected record high passenger load factor of 80.2% for this year. The result is a hard-earned 4% average net profit margin. On average, airlines will retain $8.27 for every passenger carried,” Tyler added.
At the industry level, a significant milestone was achieved with an expected return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.5%. For the first time, the industry-level average ROIC would be in excess of its cost of capital, which fell 6.8%, owing to lower bond yields.
This industry average was, however, dominated by airlines in the US, which had benefited the most from the fall in dollar-denominated fuel prices, a strong local economy and industry restructuring. On the other hand, the average non-US airline was still struggling with returns below the cost of capital and a significant debt burden.
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