African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) executive secretary Anibor Kragha believes the fossil-fuel price and supply disruptions unfolding following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underline the urgency of Africa investing in indigenous capacity to improve security of supply.

He cautions that the availability of liquid fuels and gas in Africa could come under strain in the coming months as fuel supplies that would previously have been available for consumption across the continent are diverted to European countries seeking to wean themselves off Russian energy.

The European Commission's recently published REPowerEU plan aims to reduce demand for Russian gas by two-thirds in 2022 and make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels by 2030.

The plan includes diversifying gas supplies from non-Russian sources, and accelerating the reduction of fossil fuels by boosting energy efficiency, increasing renewables and electrification, and addressing infrastructure bottlenecks.

Kragha, who is in South Africa this week for ARDA Week 2022, which is under way in Cape Town, says these disruptive developments underline the importance of finalising an energy transition roadmap for Africa that both ensures security of supply and reduces the environmental impact of fossil-fuel use.

He argues that, despite the rise of renewables and electric mobility, liquid fuels will remain an important part of the continent’s energy mix for some time and that priority should, thus, be given to financing and implementing investments to enable African refineries to produce cleaner fuels.

The current fleet of refineries currently produces fuels that far exceed the maximum sulphur content permitted in other jurisdictions and Kragha believes there is an urgent need to adopt a continent-wide standard that is aligned with the 10 parts per million maximum allowed in Europe.

A recent study calculated that an investment of at least $15.7-billion would be required to upgrade the continent’s existing refineries to produce fuel to such a standard, which has yet to be adopted at the level of the African Union (AU).

Kragha is optimistic that the AU will finalise the standard by 2023, but also acknowledges that there is a limited appetite among banks to support such projects, owing to climate change concerns.

He argues that Africa’s small historical emissions contribution of about 2.7% could not be ignored, nor could the fact that energy demand was poised to rise further as Africa’s population grew.

“The first pillar of Africa’s energy transition, therefore, has to be cleaner transport and cooking fuels,” Kragha asserts, adding that cleaner fuels can only be delivered through upgrading refineries, while cleaner cooking could be achieved by replacing biomass with liquid petroleum gas.

“And in light of what's going on globally right now . . . and the impact that is having on the global oil and gas supply chains, I also believe it is becoming increasingly imperative that Africa has its own energy ecosystem.”