The International Air Transport Association (Iata), which is the global representative body of the airline industry, does not believe that the current Russia-Ukraine War is likely to affect long-term growth in the commercial aviation sector. “In general, air transport is resilient against shocks,” the association observed.

Before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia had been the world’s eleventh largest air passenger market (the country had had a large domestic market). Ukraine had ranked forty-eighth.

“It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict," added Iata. “Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time-period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts will be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighbouring areas. … The impact on airline costs as a result of fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted even outside of Eastern Europe.”

Assuming that the impact of the current war is limited in time and space, the association expected that air passenger traffic would exceed pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels in 2024. In figures, Iata expected total (international and domestic) air passengers to number 4-billion in that year. This calculation excluded the effects of the war and counted multiple sector connecting flights as one passenger. This would mean that 2024 would see 103% of the number of air passengers recorded in 2019. However, domestic air passenger numbers were forecast to hit 103% of 2019 levels next year and not in 2024. As against this, international traffic would only reach the level of 101% of the 2019 figures during 2025.

As for the immediate past, total 2021 air passenger numbers were 47% of those in 2019 (the last year before the pandemic). International passenger numbers last year, however, were only 27% of those recorded in 2019. Domestic air passenger numbers in 2021, on the other hand, were 61% of those for 2019.

“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant,” reported Iata director-general Willie Walsh. “People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”