Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) believes the domestic new-vehicle market may grow by 21% this year, to about 460 000 units, following a decline of 29% in 2020.

TSAM president and CEO Andrew Kirby says the recovery seen in the latter half of a Covid-19-hit 2020 bodes well for an increase in new-vehicle sales this year.

However, he warns that the automotive sector must not expect to see pre-Covid sales levels anytime soon, as South Africa’s enduring recession and the creeping macroeconomic effects of the coronavirus will continue to inhibit growth.

South Africa was already in a recession when it recorded its first Covid-19 infections in March, with the subsequent lockdown further squeezing businesses and consumers, notes TSAM CFO Bronwyn Kilpatrick.

As a result, unemployment reached a record high of 30.8% in the third quarter.

Kilpatrick notes that the key fundamentals of the domestic economy are not conducive to a quick recovery, owing to the structural challenges that exist, coupled with the country’s growing debt and the potential electricity capacity constraints business may face in future.

“With the pandemic came job losses, salary cuts and much uncertainty, and this impacted consumer confidence. This will, of course, influence the recovery of the economy and, in our case, the size of the domestic automotive market.

“However, our experience from 2020 has shown that not all industries are impacted in the same way and that opportunity still exists – we just need to find it,” says Kilpatrick.

Kirby estimates that the passenger-car market will reach 285 200 vehicles in 2021 and the light-commercial vehicle (LCV) market 151 800 units, while the remaining 23 000 units will comprise medium as well as heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicles (MCVs, HCV/EHVs).

2020
Kirby says the passenger-car market was hardest hit in 2020, declining by 31% from 2019, while the LCV market weathered the storm better, declining by 28%.

The MCV, HCV/EHV and bus segments were down 22%, 17% and 22% respectively.

Kirby notes that the hatchback and sedan segment saw a 34% drop in 2020, with sports-utility vehicles (SUVs), excluding premium vehicles, declining by 22%.

The premium market dropped by a massive 32%, while the one-ton bakkie market declined by 24%.

Taxi sales dropped by 31%.

TSAM sold 90 129 units in 2020, down from 130 072 units in 2019. The Japanese carmaker remained the clear leader in the local market, with a 23.7% slice of the cake.

New Toyota models coming to South Africa this year include hybrid derivatives of the Corolla and the RAV4, the GR Supra (power-up), the new made-in-Durban Corolla Cross SUV, the long-awaited GR Yaris, the Urban Cruiser (which shares a platform with Suzuki’s Vitara Brezza), as well as the updated Lexus IS and LS models.