TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic
Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies' (TIPS's) 'Tracker: The economy and the pandemic' highlights important trends in the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa and how they affect the economy.
The available data show an initial rebound in the economy following the move to Level 3 flattened out last week. A survey of business by TIPS, Business Unity South Africa and the Manufacturing Circle found that, when Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) funds run out next month, many companies anticipate retrenchments due to low demand.
The government plans a R500-billion stimulus package centred on guaranteed loans for small and medium business; the UIF Covid-19 TERS fund; and investment in infrastructure.
As of 6 June, however, only around R500-million had been lent under the R200-billion loan guarantee scheme, which accounts for the lion’s share of the proposed stimulus package.
Virtually any effort to mobilise funding on the scale proposed for the stimulus package will affect the power as well as profits of different social groups, and consequently run into heated debates and intense lobbying. In the past week, debates swirled around the reprioritisation of the national budget, the use of UIF funding, the role of impact investments, and borrowing from the IMF and the World Bank. The government approached the IMF for a loan of $4.2-billion, or R70-billion.
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