The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a 44-month high in April, which S&P Global Market Intelligence senior economist David Owen says marks a surprise boost to the private sector economy.

“Order books increased at the fastest rate in over one-and-a-half years, following a relatively subdued period since the start of fourth quarter of 2025.

“However, some comments from survey panellists suggested that the rise was helped by safety stock building as companies anticipated increased headwinds from the Middle East conflict, implying that the uplift in growth may be temporary,” he notes.

He further points out that a sharp increase in fuel prices adds to the short-term risks faced by companies, as overall input cost pressures soared to a 30-month high in April.

“With firms also increasing their charges at the sharpest pace since August 2024 in April, it remains to be seen the extent to which customers may limit spending if stock building subsides,” Owens says.

The S&P Global South Africa PMI is a composite gauge designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the private sector economy. Readings above 50 signal an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50 show a deterioration.

A strengthening of output growth drove the headline PMI up from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, signalling an improvement in business conditions for the second month running.

Moreover, the latest reading was the highest recorded since August 2022.

South African firms reported greater receipts of new orders for the first time in three months during April.

Survey respondents indicated that some firms had placed larger orders owing to concerns surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, with worries centred on anticipated further price rises, transport disruptions and supply shortages.

Output volumes expanded, marking the fourth successive month of private sector activity growth.

The upturn reached an 11-month high.

Output and new orders increased in April despite widespread reports that an uplift in domestic fuel prices had intensified cost pressures and, in some instances, constrained business operations.

About 22% of surveyed firms reported rising expenses since March, resulting in the fastest rate of cost inflation recorded in two-and-a-half years.

Beyond the direct impact on business costs, panellists also cited elevated supplier charges in response to the increase in fuel prices.

With input prices accelerating, firms across South Africa raised their selling charges for the second consecutive month, with the rate of inflation reaching its highest level since August 2024.

Sector data indicated that both costs and charges rose to the greatest extent among construction firms.

Suppliers' delivery times deteriorated further in April as freight schedules were severely disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East.

Companies reported the greatest lengthening of lead times recorded in just over one-and-a half years.

Consequently, growth of input purchases and inventories eased.

Staff capacity remained on an upward trend, with employment rising for the third month running.

Moreover, the rate of job creation quickened and reached its strongest level since September 2022.

The improvement in output growth supported a rise in activity forecasts for the first time in five months.

Companies remarked on healthy sales pipelines, strength in export markets and new product developments, but continued to regard wider geopolitical conditions with caution.