South African inflation inches up, leaving rate cut hopes intact
South Africa’s inflation rate crept up by less-than-expected in November, creating room for the central bank to deliver another cut in borrowing costs next month.
The consumer price index rose 2.9% in November from a year earlier, compared with 2.8% the prior month, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said Wednesday. That was slower than the 3.1% median of 15 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Forward-rate agreements, used to speculate on borrowing costs, see the South African Reserve Bank lowering its benchmark policy rate by a further 75 basis points over the next 12 months, little changed from earlier. The local currency was slightly stronger at 17.84 rand per dollar.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation helped keep the headline number in check. It witnessed another sharp decline in November, slowing to 2.3% from 3.6% in October, marking its lowest rate since December 2010.
The slight uptick in the headline reading still leaves inflation below the central bank’s 3% to 6% target band, and will likely encourage the monetary policy committee to lower its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points at its next meeting on January 30. The MPC has cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points to 7.75% since starting to ease policy in September.
Governor Lesetja Kganyago signaled this week that officials will proceed carefully on interest-rate adjustments, given the unpredictable outlook for the global economy. A combination of factors including higher domestic fuel prices, a weaker rand and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies are all adding to a murkier outlook on inflation.
“In an environment of uncertainty, it is very important for the central bank to move with caution and not add to the noise that you have in the data,” Kganyago said. “We should not be creating uncertainty by making moves that we would later regret.”
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