Falling oil production around the world and the gradual decline in the global peak oil flow rate will negatively impact on South Africa, which imports 70% of its fuel needs.

This is the view of renowned energy and sustainability economist Dr Jeremy Wakeford, who is one of the main speakers at the Petro.t.ex Africa conference at the South African Industry and Technology (Indutec) Fair this month.

It will take place alongside the Petro.t.ex Africa trade exhibition at Gallagher Convention Centre, in Midrand, Johannesburg, on May 14 and 15. The show is part of Indutec, which is a mix of ten events targeting the manufacturing, engineering, water, petrochemicals, plastics and energy sectors.

Wakeford is also the chairperson of the South African chapter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil , an international think-tank researching and advising on the implications of global oil depletion.

“Peak oil is not about running out of oil – it is about the eventual all-time maximum ‘peak’– the crucial flow rate – and subsequent decline of yearly global oil production,” he explains.

Global conventional crude oil production peaked in 2008 and world oil exports have been stagnant since 2005. While unconventional oil production is growing, it is expensive and not environment friendly.

These trends pose significant socioeconomic threats to the world, includ-ing South Africa, which depends on oil imports for 70% of its liquid fuel supplies.

Wakeford’s presentation at the Petro.t.ex conference will consider the likely impacts of oil price shocks and discuss a range of mitigation options for reducing South Africa’s reliance on foreign oil.

Another conference speaker is South African Petroleum Industry Association executive director Avhapfani Tshifularo. He will discuss South Africa’s oil refinery industry and factors affecting production and demand.

“With our current refining capacity, we are unable to produce sufficient fuel to meet local demand, which forces the country to import refined product,” he says.

“We expect diesel consumption to increase by 4.5% a year and petrol con-sumption to grow by 1% a year between now and 2020.”

Conference delegates can expect a detailed overview of the challenges and opportunities in the petroleum industry from many expert speakers.

Other confirmed speakers include consultant Steve Harber, who will present a keynote address: ‘South Africa’s Future in the Oil Industry’ and sales, management and product training company Fuel Online CEO Craig Reid, who will present on ‘World Class Customer Service Through Technology and Innovation’

“The Petro.t.ex Africa conference should be seen as a valuable opportunity for stakeholders in the petroleum market to ask questions and get answers from leading experts in the industry,” says conference organiser Bette McNaughton.

“Delegates will also benefit from the many business opportunities that are integral to Petro.t.ex, Africa’s biggest petroleum industry trade exhibition,” she says.

The conference also aims to identify specific factors which present potential business opportunities for stakeholders. These include a Uganda refinery upgrade to increase production output; allternative fuels (the future of gas in South Africa); how State-owned freight group Transnet’s R23-billion New Multiproduct Pipeline will boost the economy, rebuilding South Africa’s ageing refinery infrastructure; sanctions on Iran and its effect on oil imports and crude prices; Durban’s plans for its old airport and enlarging its harbour; environmental challenges relating to fracking in the Karoo; the future fuel needs and types, and original-equipment manufacturer requirements for passenger vehicles; service station sustainability and the three-year investment in the Express Upgrade Project.

“Petro.t.ex Africa is Southern Africa’s largest mid- and downstream event for the petroleum and petrochemicals industry,” concludes McNaughton.