Trade conditions remained moderately positive in November, as the month’s Trade Activity Index (TAI), which usually strongly outpaced the October level, stabilised around the level achieved the prior month, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) reported in its November trade survey on Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted TAI for November declined by three index points to 52, settling at the same level as November last year, but remaining higher than the 49 points reported for November 2011.

“It is, therefore, projected that trade conditions in December will be moderately positive, without a strong increase in activities,” the chamber said in a statement.

Sales volumes and new orders both remained at 58, which was slightly down on the 61 and 60 respectively recorded in October, but still at higher levels than in 2011 and 2012.

Inventories improved further as inventory building for the holiday season continued, with supplies improving by three points to 60, while backlogs on orders still reflected relatively strong demand before businesses closed for the holiday period.

Sales and input price pressures eased in November, with the input and sales price indices declining to 61 and 71 index points respectively.

However, with the weaker rand, inflationary expectations appeared to be rising.

“The price expectations indices on sales and inputs, returned to levels of 71 and 80, increasing by four and six points respectively above the October levels. The recent weakening of the rand will have a profound impact on imported intermediary inputs in 2014,” noted Sacci.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted trade expectations index maintained a positive level of 61 in November 2013 – up from 59 in October 2013.

The six-month outlook for sales volumes eased by three index points, while new orders remained unchanged at 59 and the supplier deliveries index improved by one point to 56.

The inventories outlook returned to positive territory at 53, which followed on the present relatively moderate trade conditions.

Employment conditions in the trade sector were positive at 51 but lower than the 53 for October, while the employment prospects index improved substantially from 51 to 56 – indicating better prospects for employment in 2014.