TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – The Conference Board of Canada's 'Provincial Outlook: Spring 2013' report expects Newfoundland and Labrador to be the leader in economic growth among the country’s provinces this year, spurred by a 12.5% rise in oil production and private sector investment, which will continue to climb to all-time highs.

The board on Wednesday said Newfoundland and Labrador's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 4.8% in 2012 but noted that the provincial economy would make up all of that and more in 2013, and grow by about 6% this year.

In 2014, Newfoundland and Labrador was expected to lead all provinces again with growth of 3.4%.

Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were also expected to grow faster than the national average of 1.8% this year, but the board warned that the economic risks to these provinces were mounting. Some resource projects had been postponed owing to an uncertain outlook for commodity prices, higher development costs and a lack of certainty about new pipeline construction.

"The economic outlooks for provinces in 2013 are very uneven. While the western provinces retain positive outlooks, their economies face heightened risks. Economic prospects in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes will be dampened by subdued business investment and fiscal restraint among governments,” Provincial Outlook associate director Marie-Christine Bernard said.

Both Alberta and Saskatchewan were expected to enjoy above-average economic growth in 2013.

Alberta posted a phenomenal growth rate of 3.9% in 2012 and Saskatchewan's economy would surge ahead by 3.8% this year.

Both oil and potash production in Saskatchewan would expand rapidly and the construction and manufacturing sectors would also advance strongly. The board said all this activity had spurred a hiring spree, which would bring Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate to just more than 4% this year.

After last year's nation-leading growth, Alberta's economy was forecast to expand by 3.1% this year. The looming risk for the province's energy sector, however, was the uncertainty surrounding access to new pipelines from Alberta to the US as well as the health of global markets. If no progress was made within the next 12 months, resource investments could be severely curtailed and the economy would take a hit.

Manitoba's economy was expected to expand at a steady yearly average of 2.3% over the next two years, despite restraint in public spending. Metals mining and construction would do well, which would bolster employment and consumer spending.

British Columbia's economy was expected to grow by just 1.6% this year, owing to weak job creation, lower business investment and a weakness in the housing resale market. However, the lull would be temporary and real GDP growth was expected to exceed 3% next year. Forestry and mining would continue their robust growth.

Economic prospects remained muted in Ontario and Quebec – both were expected to grow by 1.4% in 2013.

Business investment in both provinces was expected to decline owing to weaker housing and nonresidential construction. Both provincial governments were also expected to continue to pursue austerity programmes that aimed to restore balanced budgets.

On the bright side, with no further sales tax increases planned for this year, household consumption in Quebec was expected to pick up in 2013.

New natural gas production, along with a turnaround in the forestry and manufacturing industries, would help Nova Scotia's economy grow by 1.5% this year.

New Brunswick's economy would return to growth in 2013, although at a moderate pace of 1%. Mining expansions, especially in potash, would bolster growth in 2013 and beyond.

Prince Edward Island's economy would advance at a moderate pace of 1.4% over the next two years.