An election poll conducted in recent weeks predicted a sharp decline in support for the African National Congress (ANC), placing the governing party at 45%.

The Social Research Foundation (SRF) poll, conducted in October, placed the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 31%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 9% and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 6%. 

The poll was conducted on 1 412 registered voters, with a 5% margin of error in place, and forecast South Africa's electoral mood ahead of the 2024 provincial and national elections. 

The SRF conducted two previous polls which tracked electoral support for parties that were noticed by the registered electorate. 

The first poll was conducted in July 2022 and involved 3 204 participants. The second was conducted in March 2023 with 1 517 participants.

The survey showed that even with a high voter turnout at 66%, the ANC's support would decline.

The July 2022 survey placed the party at 50% support.

In the March 2023 one, support increased to 52% but then sharply declined in October 2023. 

The DA showed growth in all three surveys.

The party, led by John Steenhuisen, polled at 31% in October from 24% in March 2023 and 25% in July 2022. 

The EFF showed an increase and a decline. The party polled at 12% in July 2022, 6% in March 2022 and 9% in the latest poll. 

The IFP appeared in the survey, with the party polling at 2% in July 2022, 6% in March and 6% in October. 

With a slightly lower electoral turnout of 56%, the ANC polled marginally higher at 46%, the DA at 31%, and the EFF at 10% and 6% in the October 2023 survey.

The SRF poll shows that the DA, with a lower turnout, would receive the same results at 31%, the EFF slightly higher at 10% and the IFP at 6%. 

"The data reveals that ANC support levels have slipped somewhat relative to July 2022 and March 2023. DA support levels have lifted over that same period, as has support for the IFP. EFF support appears to be pinned near the 10% mark. All other parties have support levels near or under the margin of error," the SRF said.

A similar poll by the Brenthurst Foundation showed a similar decline in support and placed the ANC at 37% in Gauteng and 32% in KwaZulu-Natal.