Mali is forecasting a slight recovery in industrial gold output in 2025 on the assumption that mining giant Barrick Gold will resume operations after a months-long standoff with the government, a document seen by Reuters on Wednesday showed.

Production is expected to reach 54.7 metric tons of gold, according to the document from the West African country's mines ministry, after plunging 23% to 51.7 tons in 2024.

A major gold producer in Africa, Mali has around fifteen operating gold mines, mainly owned by international companies including Barrick Gold, B2GOLD, Resolute Mining, Endeavour Mining, and Hummingbird Resources.

Barrick suspended operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto operation in January after Mali's military-led government blocked shipments from the complex and then seized three tons of gold.

Four of its employees have been detained since November on charges including money laundering and financing of terrorism, allegations the company denies.

Barrick signed an agreement with the government in February to end a broader nearly two-year tax dispute. Malian authorities, however, have yet to approve the deal.

Spokespeople for Mali's presidency and mines ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment on whether the forecast indicated the government might soon sign the agreement.

In an interview with Reuters on Feb. 12, Barrick chief executive Mark Bristow said operations would be able to resume once the company could export its gold again.

The undated ministry document bases its annual estimate on a resumption of Barrick's activities in March, forecasting output of 1.1 tons for the month - a target likely to be missed as the company's operations remain suspended.

In its annual report released this month, Barrick said it was now assuming a scenario in which production in Mali could restart on April 1, adding however that it was not guaranteed that a definitive agreement would be reached by that date, or at all.

Barrick produced 0.63 tons of gold in January and none in February, the document showed.

In December, Mali became a lithium producer with the opening of the Goulamina Lithium mine, owned by China's Ganfeng.

The ministry expects that mine to produce 381,959 tons of lithium spodumene in 2025, according to the document.