TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – A global copper industry think tank on Tuesday said the copper market, which had been in a supply deficit for the past five years, would swing to a surplus.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) met in Lisbon, Portugal, on Monday and Tuesday, after which it published its copper market forecast for 2014/15.

The group said global refined copper output was expected to top demand for refined copper by about 390 000 t, as demand was expected to lag behind production growth.

The ICSG expected global refined copper demand for 2014 to exceed refined copper production by about 270 000 t.

After growth of 8% in 2013, world mine output in 2014 was expected to grow by around 3% to 18.6-million tonnes. Operational failures combined with delays in ramping up production and starting up new mines was leading to lower-than-expected growth.

However, strong growth in world mine output was expected in 2015, owing to more output from expansions and new mine projects. After adjusting for historical disruption factors, world mine output was expected to grow by about 7% in 2015. Most of the new production was expected to be in the form of copper in concentrate.

This year, world refined copper output was expected to rise by about 5% to 22.1-million tonnes compared with that in 2013, mainly underpinned by expanded capacity at electrolytic plants in China and, to a lesser extent, from expanded solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) capacity in Africa.

Primary refined output (excluding SX-EW) was expected to grow by 7%, benefitting from adequate concentrate availability, while secondary production growth was foreseen at 2%, impacted by tightness in the scrap market.

In 2015, world refined copper was expected to grow further by about 4% to 23.1-million tonnes.

The ICSG expected global growth in demand for refined copper to rise this year by about 5% year-on-year to 22.4-million tonnes, partially supported by the tightness in the scrap market. Apparent demand in China was expected to increase by about 7% in 2014.

In the rest of the world, demand was expected to climb by about 3.5%.

For 2015, despite industrial demand, growth in China was expected at 5%, and the growth in apparent refined usage was expected at 1.8%, placing total global demand growth next year at about 1% despite expectation of higher underlying industrial demand growth.