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Global airline industry shows gains as US markets recover

9th December 2013

By: Natalie Greve

Creamer Media Contributing Editor Online

  

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Worldwide airline shares rose further in November, outperforming the broader market and increasing 4% on October’s performance, the International Air Transport Association's (Iata’s) latest Airlines Financial Monitor revealed on Monday.

The strongest gains came from US airline shares, which rose almost 11% over the month, supported by significant improvements in financial performance.

Asia Pacific airlines shares, in contrast, were down 6% since the start of the year, reflecting weakness in financial performance throughout 2013.

Iata stated that third-quarter financial results from airlines suggested that they were continuing to improve their financial performance in most regions but, as the industry normally generated most of its profits in the second and third quarters, strong results were expected.

In addition, a sample of 57 airlines showed that operating and net profits were up overall compared with the third quarter of the prior year, with North American airlines demonstrating the greatest progress, reflecting the benefits of restructuring and consolidation.

In contrast, the performance of airlines in Asia Pacific remained down on a year ago, hampered by cargo market weakness.

An improved overall showing from the aviation industry came despite jet fuel prices edging up slightly in November, rising 4% on the October low point.

Jet fuel prices had been trending in a tight and high band since early 2011 and, at $126 a barrel, prices were currently just under the average of the past 32 months.

“The relative success of recent peace talks concerning Iran provided markets with some comfort on crude oil supply disruptions. The recent uptick in crude oil prices reflects positive developments in demand, with a pick-up in manufacturing activity in the major oil consuming markets of China and the US,” Iata noted.

Meanwhile, the trend in US passenger yields had been broadly flat since early 2012 but, over the past few months, had received a boost from improvements in demand and industry consolidation.

Global fares in dollar terms improved in the third quarter after an extended decline since mid-2011, with the weakness in global fares reflecting weakness in Asia, as well as distortions from exchange rate effects.

Looking at demand, air travel expanded at a solid pace in October, with growth accelerating mid-year as the demand environment started to improve, largely through the improved performance of advanced economies and an end to the eurozone contraction.

“Air freight markets edged higher in October after falling in September. Freight volumes are now slowly trending higher, with business confidence rising and improvements in export orders now starting to show in stronger emerging market trade growth,” reported the monitor, which was compiled based on November inputs from Iata member-airlines' CFOs and heads of air cargo.

Further, growth in airline capacity was strong for most of the year, with passenger capacity increasing 0.8% in October compared with September.

Freight capacity growth accelerated strongly for most of the year owing to additional belly capacity in the passenger fleet.

“However, the last two months have seen that upward trend stabilise, which has helped to limit the recent decline in load factors and asset utilisation,” the association held.

The growth in available seats eased further in October after peaking mid-year, with the slowdown in seat growth having resulted from a fall in the net number of existing aircraft coming out of storage.

Passenger load factors weakened slightly in October compared with September, owing to the recent acceleration in capacity expansion, which occurred at a faster pace than the increase in demand.

Both international and domestic markets recorded a weakening in load factors over the month.

Meanwhile, airfreight load factors improved in October compared with September, with the trend over recent months suggesting that load factors were starting to bottom out after continuous decline throughout 2013.

Levels were still below those of last year, however, owing to the weakness in previous months.

Edited by Chanel de Bruyn
Creamer Media Online Managing Editor

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