Global total air cargo demand in February this year increased by 2.9%, year-on-year, the International Air Transport Association (Iata) has reported. International air cargo demand was 2.5% higher, over the same period. However, the rate of growth in demand decelerated in February, down from the year-on-year figure of 8.7% recorded last December. (Iata is the representative body of the global airline industry.)

Total air cargo capacity was up 12.5% in February this year as compared with February last year, but still 5.6% below the levels of February 2019. (International air cargo capacity was 8.9% higher, this past February, than in February 2021.)

“Demand for air cargo continued to expand despite growing challenges in the trading environment,” noted Iata director-general Willie Walsh. “That is not likely to be the case in March as the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine take hold. Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty will take their toll on air cargo’s performance.”

Of Iata’s regions, the one that saw the strongest performance this past February was Latin America, with an increase of 21.2%, far ahead of second-placed North America’s 6.1% and third-placed Africa’s 4.6%. Latin American cargo capacity grew by 18.9% over the same period, while North American capacity was up 13.4% and African capacity by 8.2%. The Asia-Pacific region saw demand growth of 3% (with capacity up 15.5%), while Europe recorded growth of 2.2% (and a rise in capacity of 10%).

However, the Middle East saw a fall in cargo demand of 5.3%, although capacity did increase by 7.2%. “This was the weakest performance of all regions, which was owing to a deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America,” observed Iata. “Looking forward, there are signs of improvement as data indicate that the region is likely to benefit from traffic being redirected to avoid flying over Russia.”

Iata also pointed out that the zero-Covid-19 policies being implemented in China and Hong Kong were continuing to cause supply chain disruptions. Moreover, the global new export orders Purchasing Managers’ Index last month declined to 48.2, the lowest level since July 2020. This signalled that a majority of the surveyed managers had reported a fall in new export orders. And general consumer price inflation in the seven largest advanced economies (the G7 group) reached 6.3% this past February, in year-on-year terms: the highest level since late 1982. Higher inflation normally reduced purchasing power, but a side-effect of the pandemic had been higher savings levels, which “balanced” the rise in inflation, said Iata.