https://www.engineeringnews.co.za
Efficiency|Energy|Environment|Ghana|Technology|Water|Environmental
Efficiency|Energy|Environment|Ghana|Technology|Water|Environmental
efficiency|energy|environment|ghana|technology|water|environmental

Economic progress versus carbon footprints

23rd November 2022

     

Font size: - +

This article has been supplied as a media statement and is not written by Creamer Media. It may be available only for a limited time on this website.

Garth Zietsman is a statistician who analyses and writes for the Free Market Foundation. 

COP27 has just wrapped up in Egypt with the final push being an argument over an economic consequence of global warming – in this case compensation for any negative consequences for vulnerable poor countries. Yet was that the right conversation to have?  Below I make a case for the focus to be on economic growth instead.

In 2001 Bjorn Lomborg published a book entitled The Skeptical Environmentalist. In the chapter on air pollution were two graphs that showed changes in particle and SO2 pollution in 48-49 cities as average income (in 1985 terms) increased – both in 1972 and 1986. Pollution first increased with rising incomes, reached a maximum at $3000, and then declined as income increased further. The peak pollution for both particles and SO2 was at the same average real income in both 1972 and 1986 – although the 1986 peak (and graph as a whole) was lower in 1986 than 1972. For a given income, the lower levels of pollution in later years are due to increased efficiency over time. The fact that pollution peaks at a specific level of income means that when people earn enough to satisfy their material needs, they start to care about other things more - such as environmental quality.   

Now for those who are concerned about the state of the environment one obvious lesson is that there is hope in greater technological efficiency. Another lesson is that they shouldn’t expect improvements where people still have unmet material needs. I was motivated by this finding, and the current Climate Summit in Egypt, to find out whether something like this phenomenon exists with carbon footprints across countries. It does.

One can see – in the graph above – that changes in per capita carbon footprints go from increasing to decreasing at a log GDP pc of about 3,26 – equivalent to a current GDP pc of $4300 and somewhere between Ghana and Papua New Guinea. Clearly the same phenomenon which Lomborg reported.   

We should expect each person’s carbon footprint to start decreasing after they earn above a certain amount. Note that the turning point is where peak carbon production occurs, so the further a country exceeds it the better. Most of the large, heavy CO2 producing countries already have higher incomes than the turning point figure but not enough to show big decreases in per capita carbon footprints.  

If the country isn’t already at that income level the only way to get there, and past it, is economic growth. Economic growth will enable vulnerable countries to build defences against any risks e.g., sea barriers for rising sea levels, better flood defences, improved fresh water supply and management, and stronger buildings to handle weather extremes; and it is both a better way than compensation and will make compensation easier.  

How do we get growth and greater efficiency? Improved cognitive skills, open and free economies, and dependent on those, new technology, are the proven ways. Farsighted green-energy advocates should promote these ways, including the free market bit.

The views expressed in the article are the author’s and not necessarily shared by the members of the Foundation.  

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

Comments

Latest News

Rand South African flag
Rand slips ahead of CPI, central bank meetings
18th March 2024 By: Reuters
An image of Maltento CEO Dean Smorenburg, Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis and Cape Town premier Alan Winde
Maltento aiming to bolster sustainability efforts
18th March 2024 By: Tasneem Bulbulia

Showroom

SABAT
SABAT

From batteries for boats and jet skis, to batteries for cars and quad bikes, SABAT Batteries has positioned itself as the lifestyle battery of...

VISIT SHOWROOM 
Booyco Electronics
Booyco Electronics

Booyco Electronics, South African pioneer of Proximity Detection Systems, offers safety solutions for underground and surface mining, quarrying,...

VISIT SHOWROOM 

Latest Multimedia

sponsored by

Photo of Martin Creamer
On-The-Air (15/03/2024)
15th March 2024 By: Martin Creamer

Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):

Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format

Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):

All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.

Already a subscriber?

Forgotten your password?

MAGAZINE & ONLINE

SUBSCRIBE

RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA

SUBSCRIBE

CORPORATE PACKAGES

CLICK FOR A QUOTATION







sq:0.069 0.114s - 162pq - 2rq
Subscribe Now