Renowned South African political commentator Justice Malala noted on Tuesday that disagreements within the Government of National Unity (GNU) will not break it, predicting that the GNU will possibly come to an end next year, closer to the local government elections.

Malala was speaking at financial services company PSG Financial Services’ Think Big webinar, where he said the postponement of the 2025 Budget speech was a humiliation for the GNU and a “spectacular failure” in political management.

Last week Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was forced to postpone the Budget speech following an uncanvassed proposed increase of two percentage points in value-added tax. 

The Budget will now be tabled on March 12.

“What we saw with the Budget, I think it is important to remember that this is a coalition agreement, a coalition government, and that it will have bumps, it is not going to be smooth sailing. A lot of people will say ‘they are fighting over the Budget it’s the end of the GNU’ - no it is not the end,” Malala stated.

He said while this “fight” within the GNU might take parties to the brink, he did not believe that it would break the GNU.

He noted that this was the second crisis of the GNU, pointing to the Expropriation Bill, the Basic Education Laws Amendment Bill, and the National Health Insurance Bill.

“I think the GNU will come to an end possibly next year, towards the local government elections . . . however for now it is very important to analyse the crisis that happened and take lessons from that - this does not mean it is the end of the GNU,” he stressed.

He believes that the “goodwill” will continue but added that it’s clear from the Budget postponement that real work needs to be done if South Africa really wants to reap the fruits of this relationship.

Malala pointed out that parties could have discussed the Budget issues in Cabinet meetings, ahead of the Budget.

“…so, a huge impact on the credibility is on the public-facing aspects of what our country is doing. I think that will need a lot of work and a lot of repairs to happen because many people are looking at us across the globe. Right now, we must not underestimate the damage that this does to our country,” he noted.

He said the GNU promised citizens that parties would work in unity and with accountability.

“…this Budget and this fiasco with the Budget postponement really says to us, they have not talked to each other, they do not have a plan,” Malala noted.

Last year, he expressed positive sentiments about the formation of the GNU, but warned that there was a significant risk that parties could pull apart.

Meanwhile, President Cyril Ramaphosa pointed out that disagreements, contradictions and policy divergence were inherent in governments made up of several political parties.