European airliner manufacturer Airbus has predicted, in its latest Global Market Forecast, that over the next 20 years (from this year until 2032) air traffic will grow at an annual rate of 4.7%. This will be the result of economic growth, migration, urbanisation, rising middle classes, affordability, ease of travel and tourism, among other factors.

The company reported that currently, on average, 20% of the population of the emerging market countries take a flight annually, but that, by 2032, this will have increased to 66%. Air passenger numbers will more than double from 2.9-billion today to 6.7-billion in 20 years.

In consequence, the aviation sector will require more than 29 220 new airliners and freighter aircraft, worth almost $4.4-trillion by 2032. Of these, about 28 350 will be airliners, worth more than $4.1-trillion.

Around 10 400 of these new aircraft will be used to replace existing, less efficient aeroplanes. As the world’s current airliner and freighter fleet totals 17 740 aircraft, this means that the global commercial aircraft fleet will more than double to almost 36 540 aeroplanes.

The biggest regional market for these new aircraft will be the Asia-Pacific, which will enjoy an above average annual air traffic growth rate of 5.5% and so account for 36% of the new airliner demand. Europe will be in second place, with 20%, followed by North America, with 19%. Domestic air traffic is also expected to see strong growth, with India leading the way at almost 10%, and Brazil and China in joint second place, with 7% each.

In terms of aircraft categories, single-aisle (or narrow body) aeroplanes will make up the majority of the new types that will be acquired. Deliveries are expected to reach 20 242, amounting to 71% of the new aircraft being acquired. Their value will be $1.82-trillion.

The demand for twin-aisle, or wide body, aircraft, will be 6 779, worth $1.82-trillion. The need for very large aircraft (such as the A380 Superjumbo) will be for 1 334 passenger aeroplanes, with a value of $519-million.