PERTH (miningweekly.com) – Australia’s resources and energy commodity export earnings were forecast to increase at an average rate of 8% a year until 2018/19, as volume growth would offset softer prices, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) executive director Bruce Wilson said on Wednesday.

By the end of this year, export earnings were forecast to reach A$199-billion, up from the A$176-billion in 2012/13, and by 2018/19, export earnings could top A$284-billion.

“In Australia, the resources boom is transitioning from the investment phase to the production phase as the large number of projects developed over the past few years start operation,” Wilson said, adding that this was expected to result in increased production and exports for a number of commodities.

Lower prices for most commodities over the past year have put greater pressure on the profitability and competitiveness of some Australian producers. However, Wilson noted that the Australian industry was expected to remain fairly resilient over the medium term.

“In the short term, higher volumes of iron-ore and coal will be the principal drivers of export growth. As new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity comes on line over the outlook period, LNG exports will increase to become one of Australia’s principal exports and support further growth in export earnings.”

Between 2012/13 and 2018/19, LNG exports were projected to increase at an average rate of 22% to reach 79-million tonnes, up from 24-million tonnes in 2012/13.

Iron-ore would be the second-largest contributor to higher export revenue over the medium term, and exports were projected to grow at an average rate of 8.2% a year to total 847-million tonnes in 2018/19, more than 300-million tonnes higher than in 2012/13.

Coal exports volumes were also projected to increase over the medium term. Thermal coal and metallurgical coal exports are projected to grow at 5.1% and 3.8% a year to total 244-million tonnes and 181-million tonnes, respectively, in 2018/19.

In line with higher LNG exports, the value of energy exports was projected to increase, in real terms, across the outlook period to total A$119-billion in 2018/19. The value of resources exports, in real terms, is projected to peak in 2016/17 at around A$136-billion primarily as a result of an expected further moderation in iron-ore prices.

“The mining industry has been central to the Australian economy over the past decade and its contribution will be more important than ever in the years ahead,” Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane said on Wednesday.

“In addition to getting rid of the tax burden on the sector, the Australian government is moving ahead with the introduction of the Exploration Development Incentive, which will support the next wave of exploration and investment,” added Macfarlane.

The Minister pointed out that while the investment phase of Australia’s mining boom was coming to an end, the country was seeing the benefits as it shifted increasing volumes of product into hungry global resources markets.

“The BREE figures reinforce that the resources sector will continue to be essential in delivering greater prosperity for Australia through export earnings, job creation, increased productivity and global competitiveness.”