Weekly SA Coal Report
A generally bullish week for the energy complex saw coal prices rally several dollars.
However, these are still far below the highs reached earlier this year. It is still possible for the coal market to enjoy its annual Q4 rally, although one suspects the market has given all it can give this year so far.
Chinese domestic prices are firm once more, as Beijing seeks to crack down on illegal mining in Shanxi province, with illegal being defined as a mine producing over its allowed quota.
Overland coal imports from Mongolia has also slowed dramatically as new cases of Covid-19 are reported.
Within India the coal supply situation has improved, with the majority of domestic coal being transacted via e-auctions now, ensuring a more efficient market with better pricing signals for all.
Despite pledges on climate, Coal India and power generators in the country seem determined to ramp up coal production, even as prices firm.
South Africa is not the only producing country struggling to get coal out the country. The Port of Newcastle, Australia, is also experiencing bad weather hampering loading.
As La Nina strengthens over the southern hemisphere, more severe and wet weather can be expected to continue.
Glencore is on track to shut down around 8 Mmtpa of thermal production from Australia by end of 2023, with almost the same amount to close down in South Africa by 2023, albeit dependant on potential life of mine extensions.
Within South Africa the saga continues around Optimum Coal Mine as the National Prosecuting Authority prepares to intervene in the proposed sale to Liberty Coal, held by Templar Capital.
The shadow of the Gupta family continues to haunt South Africa.
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