Unctad update shows 10% y/y, 4% q/q recovery in trade in first quarter
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's (Unctad's) latest Global Trade Update shows that global trade’s recovery from the Covid-19 crisis reached a record high in the first quarter of this year, increasing by 10% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, largely fuelled by trade in goods while, in contrast, trade in services continued to lag behind.
The rebound is expected to continue into the second quarter, with the value of global trade in goods and services forecast to reach $6.6-trillion, equivalent to a year-on-year increase of about 31% relative to the lowest point of 2020 and about 3% relative to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019, it says.
"Unctad forecasts trade growth for 2021 at about 16% in value. Still, the positive outlook is largely dependent on reducing pandemic restrictions, a persisting positive trend in commodity prices, overall restraints from trade protectionist policies and supportive macroeconomic and fiscal conditions."
Trade recovery remains uneven, especially among developing countries, with exports from East Asia rebounding substantially faster. East Asian economies are also behind the recovery of trade among developing countries, or South-South trade, states Unctad.
"When trade figures from East Asian developing economies are excluded, South-South trade remains below average," the report highlights.
Among major economies, China's exports continue to register a strong increase not only from 2020 averages but also in relation to pre-pandemic levels.
In contrast, exports from Russia remain below 2019 averages.
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