The recent warning of a developing Super El Niño event for the 2026/2027 season has drawn attention to heightened risks of droughts, floods and major agricultural disruptions across South Africa, reinforcing the immediate need for climate resilience measures. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% probability that the November 2026 to January 2027 period could experience a very strong El Niño, increasing drought and crop-production risks across South Africa's summer-rainfall regions.

According to meteorological preparations highlighted by the African Union (AU), this potential Super El Niño could bring significant climate impacts to agriculture-dependent economies like South Africa, where extreme weather events threaten food security and rural livelihoods. The risks are well established: 16 of the past 21 El Niño events since 1961 coincided with below-expected South African maize yields, while the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) projected a 21% decline in South Africa's summer grain and oilseed harvest during the 2023/24 El Niño-linked drought.

This climate alert coincides with ongoing progress in South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). International pledges have scaled significantly, supported by the early 2026 extension of a US$ 1 billion United Kingdom/African Development Bank (AfDB) debt guarantee aimed at infrastructure development and communities in coal-dependent regions such as Mpumalanga.

The AU continues to prioritise green skills development continent-wide, as demonstrated through Africa Skills Week 2025 and the AU-ILO Youth Employment Strategy. These initiatives link workforce capabilities directly to sustainable growth and the objectives of Agenda 2063.

"South Africa is facing two pressures at once," said Philip Hanly, Customer Success Director at New Leaf Technologies, a learning solutions company in Johannesburg.

"On one side, the possibility of a severe El Niño this coming season means agriculture and food security are genuinely at risk. The Western Cape Government estimates the province's 2023 floods caused at least R8.1 billion in infrastructure and agricultural damage, while the University of Pretoria’s Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) programme suggests climate change could cost South Africa between R28 billion and R36 billion in economic output by 2030. On the other side, billions of dollars are moving through the JETP to shift the country away from coal. Green skills aren't a nice-to-have anymore; they're the thing standing between funded intentions and actual outcomes."

While policy frameworks and international funding are advancing, stakeholders across South Africa's learning and development (L&D) sector recognise a critical green skills gap. Turning JETP investments into practical results requires capable people trained in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, grid management and climate adaptation.

Hanly notes that the money is arguably ahead of the workforce in many areas.

"You can approve a billion-dollar guarantee, but if there aren't enough people trained in renewable installation and maintenance, grid balancing, or sustainable land management, the money sits there," he explained.

Internationally, countries that have integrated green skills into L&D systems are already seeing stronger results. According to LinkedIn's Global Green Skills Report 2024, professionals with green skills enjoy a 55% higher hiring rate than the overall workforce, while demand for green talent is growing more than twice as fast as supply (11.6% versus 5.6%). Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reports that all 27 surveyed countries have adopted national green upskilling strategies, with 21 already funding dedicated green training programmes. Germany demonstrates how vocational training, apprenticeships and public-private partnerships can support smoother energy transitions and stronger green economy growth.

Stronger green skills development can play a dual role: protecting key sectors like agriculture through resilience practices such as improved water management and climate-adaptive farming, while supporting workers transitioning from traditional carbon-intensive industries with credible new livelihood pathways.

For providers in the South African L&D space, including New Leaf Technologies and other Johannesburg-based specialists, this presents a clear opportunity to develop targeted digital training solutions. Digital and blended learning approaches are particularly well suited to the challenge, enabling scalable, accessible training across geographies and learner needs where traditional classroom delivery may be limited.

"Green skills training can't be one-size-fits-all," Hanly added. "A renewable energy technician in Mpumalanga and a smallholder farmer adapting to drought in the Eastern Cape need completely different training, delivered differently. Digital platforms let you reach people at scale, in multiple languages, and adapt to connectivity realities."

Broader engagement across the South African L&D ecosystem, through partnerships with corporates, Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) and government, could accelerate skills development aligned with both JETP goals and AU priorities.

Hanly believes the current alignment of funding, policy attention and climate urgency creates a timely window.

"The window where funding, policy attention and climate urgency are all aligned doesn't last forever. If the L&D sector doesn't build the delivery capability now, we risk another case of good policy and real money arriving faster than the country's ability to use it."

New Leaf Technologies continues to support organisations with practical digital learning solutions that help translate strategic goals into measurable workforce capability, contributing to South Africa's national resilience and economic diversification in a rapidly changing climate and economic environment.