While global growth is expected to slow to 2.4% for the year, down from the previously projected 2.9%, growth in sub-Saharan Africa is still expected to reach 4.1% this year and 3.8% in 2027, financial intelligence firm S&P Global Market Intelligence has said.

During its Definitive Risk Conference on May 12, in Johannesburg, S&P Global Market Intelligence Africa and Middle East regional analysis head Thea Fourie said many sub-Saharan African countries were less impacted by the fuel and other commodities price shocks than regions such as Europe or Asia-Pacific.

Trade in goods through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill. Regional bloc Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries used the Strait to export many important products, including oil, refined fuels, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers and helium, and disruption in their trade was contributing to disruptions of global supply chains, she said.

The disruption in trade hugely impacted the region, with expected Middle East and North African growth halved. This reflected the disruptions to supply chains and limited exports, as well as infrastructure damage.

These have implications for production of oil and related products in the short term, but could lead to higher production over the medium term as the infrastructure is rehabilitated.

However, current expectations were for limited growth potential in GCC countries, she said.

“It is not surprising that we downgraded our expectations for global growth this year, as we are worried about inflationary pressures and higher interest rates,” said Fourie.

The resilience of the expected growth of sub-Saharan African countries was owing to the demand for critical minerals, rare earths and the acceleration in commodity prices over the past few months, including for copper, aluminium and lithium.

Capital accumulation was a significant contributor to growth in sub-Saharan African countries, owing to the race for critical minerals and rare earths. This was being driven by GCC countries and the US, which was seeing the enhancement of mining production to secure these commodities.

Many of these projects were also linked to development of infrastructure, and there had never before been so much rail and port development on the continent. These developments were also linked to the US and GCC countries trying to unlock supply of critical minerals and rare earths that was not dependent on China, Fourie stated.

Further, oil exporters such as Angola, Nigeria and Congo-Brazzaville were expected to benefit from the spike in global oil prices, as this would support their growth, fiscal finances and currencies.

The economic growth of countries that were reliant on commodity exports was still expected to be resilient during the year.

In nonresource-dependent countries, growth was under pressure, particularly if the country was dependent on fuel imports. However, a good year for agriculture in 2025 provided a buffer for economic growth in the sub-Saharan African region, she said.

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa that relied on tourism were expected to experience pressure and lower growth, owing to the disruption in global travel, including into the second half of the year.

Further, in terms of leading indicators, the aggregate purchasing managers' index (PMI) output reading for sub-Saharan African remained strong during the first quarter, and accelerated in April. S&P Global Market Intelligence was comfortable that this economic resilience would persist during the first half of the year, she noted.

“This sharply contrasts the global outlook, as global PMIs are mainly determined by larger economies, including China, Eurozone countries and the US, where the decline in manufacturing and services sub-indices drove the PMIs lower.”

However, all the global PMIs remained above the neutral 50-point mark, which meant that these economies remained within the expansionary reading levels and were not yet contracting, she pointed out.

The financial intelligence firm remained concerned about the growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, given global events and that the impact of these disruptions would be more visible during 2027.

However, in contrast to previous economic cycles Africa weathered, the current expectations were that the impact would not be severe, as buffers against shocks to economic growth were currently relatively strong, said Fourie.

Meanwhile, while there had been a normalisation of gasoline supply after April, this was not the case for diesel, and the firm saw a drop in diesel exports across the globe in March, which worsened in April, she said.

“This is not only a South African story; it is global. We are likely to see diesel pressure become more prominent during the second half of the year, given the supply chain disruptions we are seeing,” she pointed out.

All countries were trying to find new supply chains and realign their supply chains, with not enough supply to go around, she added.

Further, while there was a lower expected impact on sub-Saharan African countries arising from disruptions in the supply of refined fuels, this was not the case for diesel, owing to significant pressures on sourcing diesel globally.

This held implications for trade across the continent, with most trade between sub-Saharan African countries being conducted by road or rail, which typically relied on diesel fuel.

Further, refined fuel was heavily traded in Africa, in addition to chemicals, fertiliser, vegetable products, metals and mining products.

These other traded goods could also be impacted by a squeeze on energy products in sub-Saharan Africa, as supply chains globally realign and the shortage of goods places pressures on prices.

Implications for sub-Saharan African countries from the US-Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East were more significant on the consumer side. Lower global commodity prices in commodity-exporting countries would feed into lower exchange rates, which would fuel inflation and this held implications for consumers.

This was a more significant risk to sub-Saharan African countries for the rest of this year and in 2027 than the direct impact of disruptions caused by the cessation of trade through the Strait, she said.

In 2027, there was a risk of rising pressures on consumers, as well as the potential El Niño event, that could impact on wholesale, retail and agriculture in sub-Saharan African countries. About 40% of the region’s growth was linked to agriculture, and constraints on the agriculture side would have growth implications for next year, Fourie noted.

Fertiliser remained available, but was expensive owing to the drop in supply. S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipated lower use of fertilisers during the current season compared with previous years, with implications for yields and food inflation into next year.

The firm also remained concerned about inflation, with leading indicators, such as the PMI for sub-Saharan Africa, showing an acceleration in input and output prices.