Political and trend analyst JP Landman noted on Thursday that the idea that the African National Congress (ANC) will be replaced after the May 29 elections with a new national government is a misrepresentation and reckless.

He noted the ANC may get an average support of 45% to 46%, but would still be twice as big as the next biggest party.

Polls predict that the ANC will not win an outright majority, which will lead to a coalition government. Landman suggested that South Africa could end up with a coalition government that will be dominated by the ANC, with one or two opposition parties playing a much smaller role than the big parties.

“If that coalition government is formed, will still have the ANC and the ANC leader will probably become the President of the country; they will have the majority of seats in Cabinet, they will occupy the majority of political space. That is why I think it is a bit reckless to talk about a new government in the sense of the ANC having been replaced,” he said.

He highlighted that the ANC could lose its majorities in Gauteng and in KwaZulu-Natal, however, he does not see the ANC teaming up with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at national or even at provincial level.

While he believes there would be ANC provincial leaders in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal who would like to go with the EFF into a coalition government, he questioned whether those leaders would have enough standing to do so.

Landman pointed out that the ANC and EFF agreement in the Ekurhuleni municipality had not proved fruitful, saying an ANC and Democratic Alliance (DA) coalition might be much easier at provincial level than at a local government level.

He said after the May elections, there would be huge pressure for the ANC and DA to come together in the Johannesburg metropolitan municipality, even in Ekurhuleni, if the ANC gets below 50% support.

He noted that the coalition at a national level would be very difficult to maintain.

Meanwhile, Landman believes that the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, associated with former President Jacob Zuma, would do well in the KwaZulu-Natal, saying the party would cut the ANC’s support.

“It will overall contribute to a reduced vote count for the ANC, but also if we look at the by-election results, I think they have taken a lot of support from the EFF,” he said.

He highlighted that it looked as if the MK Party was putting pressure on the EFF, which he said may have interesting consequences.

Landman predicts that after the May elections there won’t be much change in economic policies.

He said since 1994 the country had seen remarkable consistency, particularly in macroeconomic policy from the ANC, explaining that the party had been quite good in maintaining macroeconomic stability.

He noted that there was no sign that this would change.

Landman said apart from macroeconomic policy, sorting out energy, ports and railways was important, on which he said there was no indication that the country would reverse progress being made on these three basic policy initiatives.