The International Air transport Association (Iata), the representative body for the global airline industry, has reported that, during September, air cargo demand had strengthened, but, in comparison to last year, remained depressed. However, the different Iata regions experienced wide variations in demand, with Africa and North America both doing much better than the other regions.

“Air cargo volumes are down on 2019, but they are a world apart from the extreme difficulties in the passenger business,” highlighted Iata director-general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “For air cargo, 92% of the business is still there, whereas about 90% of the international passenger traffic has disappeared.”

Globally, air cargo demand in September was down 8% year-on-year. But in August, it had been down 12.1% year-on-year. Month-on-month, demand in September was up 3.7%. (Demand for international air cargo in September registered a decline of 9.9% year-on-year.)

But Africa saw a year-on-year increase in total air cargo demand of 8.2% and of 9.7% in international demand. September was the fifth month in a row in which Africa was the region with the strongest increase in international demand, with the main impetus continuing to be Africa-Asia investment flows. (African international air cargo capacity was nevertheless down by 32.2% year-on-year, due to the absence of airliner belly-hold capacity.)

North American carriers saw a total increase in demand of 8.6%, and in international demand of 1.5%. September was the first time in ten months that North American carriers had experienced an increase of international air cargo demand. As for the other regions, they all experienced year-on-year declines in demand. For total air cargo, these falls were 15.9% for Asia-Pacific carriers, 15.4% for European operators, 22.5% for Latin American carriers and 2.6% for Middle Eastern airlines.

Encouraging for the sector are improving global economic indicators. The World Trade Organisation has revised its trade growth forecast for this year upward, from –12.9% to –9.2%. And the export orders subset of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has risen over 50 for the first time since the middle of 2018, signalling growth.

“Favourable indicators for the peak year-end season will support the continued recovery in demand,” pointed out De Juniac. “Already North American and African carriers are reporting demand gains on 2019. The challenge continues to be on capacity. As carriers adjust schedules to reflect falling passenger demand amid the resurgence of Covid-19, valuable belly capacity will be lost when it is needed the most.”