Progress is beginning to emerge from the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) crisis for the South African beef industry, according to Louw van Reenen, Chairman of Beefmaster Group.

“The industry is emerging stronger, even though challenges remain. There is improving control of the disease, and if we can get our vaccination status right, over time this should support stronger demand for products like beef and lamb. Global protein prices have been rising, and supply is tightening. This should lead to higher prices, which will benefit farmers,” says van Reenen. “However, FMD is likely to remain a longer-term reality than what we realise, which must be planned for accordingly.”

Lesson learnt: FMD results in catastrophic economic losses

Van Reenen says that the impact on feedlots and abattoirs is significant.

“In many cases, there is no slaughter for up to two months, followed by as much as five months of disrupted production after the last slaughter. This can result in product losses, penalties, discounted sales, and even the risk of losing export status,” he explains.

According to research from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), losses range between R5 000 and R7 000 per head.

“If you consider that the average feedlot holds around 20 000 cattle, the financial impact escalates quickly. At those levels, losses can reach approximately R120 million per outbreak if you account for the fact that you must wait for the FMD status to be cleared before vaccinating. Many feedlots simply cannot absorb that kind of loss,” he says.

As a result, feedlots become reluctant to buy, “creating a backlog in the system because the risk is just too high.”

Van Reenen says he is encouraged by the findings of a recent study by the University of Pretoria, conducted in conjunction with Red Meat Industry Services (RMIS) and released in April 2026. The study has challenged existing assumptions around FMD transmission risk. The findings point to opportunities for policy reform that could significantly reduce economic losses without increasing disease risk, particularly in relation to slaughter protocols. Specifically, the study recommends removing requirements such as mandatory deboning and the disposal of offal under current regulations, noting that these measures add considerable cost without a commensurate impact on limiting the spread of the disease.

A system under strain, but a  “game-changer" plan

Van Reenen says the state’s ability to respond to FMD has been constrained by limited resources, particularly a shortage of veterinarians. While meaningful efforts have been made, the scale and complexity of recurring outbreaks have placed sustained pressure on both government and industry.

“However, there is a shift to recognising that FMD is an economic disease that must be managed, not ignored. The long-term strategy from Minister John Steenhuisen is a game changer for the industry. It moves us away from a grey area, where there was limited reporting and control, towards a structured path of managing the disease and ultimately achieving an FMD-free-with-vaccination status,” says van Reenen.

Central to this shift is a renewed focus on vaccination. “If we can do what the South American countries have done - vaccinate consistently and at scale - we can build healthier herds and produce better quality products. That, in turn, opens up access to stronger export markets.”

However, while it has been framed as a 10-year plan, van Reenen speculates it may well take longer. “Brazil took over 20 years and Argentina around 14 years. Realistically, it could take us 20 years or more, with ongoing vaccination forming part of the solution for the long term.”

He adds that countries like Argentina and Uruguay have access to markets in the US and Europe because they meet strict requirements, while South Africa currently does not. “That is a major opportunity for our country, but it will largely depend on an effective vaccination programme.”

The opportunity in being recognised as FMD-free-with-vaccination

Currently, South Africa is not recognised as having an official FMD status, according to World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) data from March 2026. “This lack of formal recognition significantly constrains the country’s ability to access and compete in high-value international markets,” says van Reenen.

Without a clear and credible status, export opportunities remain limited, as many countries require strict assurances around disease control before allowing imports. This places South African producers at a disadvantage compared to countries that have adopted a “free from FMD with vaccination” classification, which enables them to trade more widely while managing the disease through structured vaccination programmes.

“Achieving this status would allow producers to optimise carcass value across different regions and significantly improve returns.”

Currently, farmers receive relatively low returns (around R60/kg range), but export access could increase profitability by over 30%, believes van Reenen.

“Other countries already export successfully with vaccination, indicating market acceptance is not a barrier. In addition, South African beef remains competitively priced globally, offering strong value relative to international benchmarks,” he says.

He adds that South Africa needs to prove that its systems are well-regulated and strictly managed. “There must be clear evidence that we are controlling the disease effectively.”

Message and outlook for primary producers

Van Reenen believes the clearest lesson from the crisis is that the industry must take greater ownership of solutions.

“We must find solutions within our own communities. We cannot expect the state alone to manage and control the disease. We need to take responsibility ourselves and act according to the right principles,” he says, adding that this includes stronger on-farm biosecurity, investing in preventative systems, and better movement control to limit the spread of disease.

“While there is reluctance to absorb additional costs, industry-led action will aid long-term recovery.”

He adds over the short term, the current environment appears favourable, despite volatility.

“All protein food categories have seen price increases driven by strong demand. While production costs are rising and longer-term trading conditions may become more challenging, farmers who are able to continue producing are currently benefiting from improved returns. With prices increasing by more than 30%, the market is clearly still absorbing the product, which is a positive signal for the sector and indicates sustained consumer demand. This, together with the progress we are making on FMD, points to cautious optimism in the current climate,” concludes van Reenen.