The European Union (EU) carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could change trade patterns in favour of countries where production is relatively carbon efficient, but do little to mitigate climate change, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) has warned.
A report published by Unctad on July 14 details the CBAM’s potential implications on international trade, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, income and employment for countries inside and outside the EU, with a special focus on developing and vulnerable countries.
The CBAM is expected to introduce new CO2 emissions-cutting measures transitionally from 2023 and finalise them before 2026.
“Climate and environmental considerations are at the forefront of policy concerns and trade cannot be the exception. CBAM is one of these options, but its impact on developing countries also needs to be considered,” Unctad acting secretary-general Isabelle Durant commented.
The report confirmed that introducing the CBAM would reduce part of the carbon leakage produced by the different climate change ambitions between the EU and other countries.
However, carbon leakage, referring to the relocation of production to other countries with laxer emissions constraints for cost reasons related to climate policies, could lead to an increase in their total emissions, the report said.
The report further explained how several of the EU’s trading partners exporting goods in carbon-intensive sectors have raised concerns that the CBAM would substantially curtail their exports, but the report stated that “these changes may not be as drastic as some fear”.
Exports by developing countries across the targeted carbon-intensive sectors would be reduced by 1.4% if the CBAM is implemented with a price of $44/t of embedded CO2 emissions, and by 2.4% if it is implemented with an $88/t price, the report showed.
However, the effects would vary significantly by country, depending on their export structure and carbon production intensity.
In both scenarios, developed countries, as a group, would not suffer export declines since many tend to employ production methods that are less carbon intensive in the targeted sectors than many developing nations.
“The CBAM would generate a similar gap between developing and developed countries in terms of welfare. In both cases, developed countries would fare better than developing ones,” the report stated.
With a CBAM based on a carbon price of $44/t, the income of developed countries would rise by $2.5-billion, while that of developing nations would fall by $5.9-billion, according to Unctad’s analysis.
However, developed countries would experience a higher welfare loss of $51-billion from the initial introduction of a carbon price of $44/t, driven by losses in the EU, while developing countries would gain $1-billion in the absence of the CBAM.
Potential employment effects would be small for most economies, the report said.
Further, the report noted that increased carbon prices would significantly reduce carbon emissions in the EU, but the world’s largest trading bloc’s exports would decline.
A CBAM based on a carbon price of $44/t of CO2-embedded emissions would reduce the carbon leakage resulting from the implementation of climate policies in the EU by more than half, from 13.3% to 5.2%, Unctad stated.
But the mechanism would not fully compensate for the negative effects of the carbon tax on the EU’s economy.
Although the CBAM would be effective in reducing carbon leakage, its value in mitigating climate change is limited, the report said, as the mechanism would cut only 0.1% of global CO2 emissions.
While the mechanism seeks to avoid the leakage of production and CO2 emissions to the EU’s trading partners with less stringent emissions targets, the report stated that “it’s so far unclear how it can support decarbonisation in developing countries”.
“Reducing these emissions effectively will require more efficient production and transport processes,” the report said.
Unctad, therefore, urged the EU to consider deploying CBAM flanking policies capable of narrowing, and eventually eliminating, the gaps between developed and developing countries.
“The EU could consider using some of the revenue generated by the CBAM to accelerate the diffusion and uptake of cleaner production technologies in developing countries,” Durant said, adding that “this will be beneficial in terms of greening the economy and fostering a more inclusive trading system”.