The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) Subregional Office for Southern Africa (SRO-SA) has called on countries in the region to accelerate regional integration, strengthen economic resilience and implement coordinated policy responses to withstand external shocks.

The Middle East crisis represents another major external shock, following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which threatens to reverse the region's hard-won macroeconomic gains, said ECA SRO-SA director Eunice Kamwendo.

“The Middle East crisis is a stark reminder that resilience is no longer optional; it is essential for sustainable economic transformation. Southern Africa must strengthen its capacity to withstand external shocks before the next crisis occurs,” she added.

Disruptions in global energy markets and shipping routes have raised fuel, fertiliser and transport costs, which increases pressure on inflation, trade, public finances and food security in the region.

However, the changing global landscape offered strategic opportunities for Southern Africa, she said during the ECA 'Implications of the Middle East Crisis on Southern Africa: Assessing Impacts, Ongoing Mitigation Measures and Building Regional Resilience' dialogue on June 23.

These strategic opportunities included increased maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, higher demand for critical minerals, more investment in renewable energy and greater potential for regional value addition under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement, she said.

Further, there were four main ways the Middle East crisis was affecting Southern Africa, namely through rising energy and fiscal pressures, disruptions to trade and logistics, tighter financial conditions, and possible reductions in remittance flows, ECA SRO-SA regional adviser Zodwa Mabuza pointed out.

Additionally, while there were country-specific vulnerabilities, there were also opportunities to strengthen regional resilience through energy diversification, industrial development and deeper regional integration, she added.

Regional economic organisation Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) programmes assistant secretary-general Dr Mohamed Kadah said Comesa was committed to advancing regional integration, socioeconomic transformation and value addition across Africa.

“Strengthening regional value chains, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, is critical to reducing dependence on external suppliers, enhancing resilience to external shocks and accelerating sustainable economic transformation through stronger collaboration among member States and development partners,” he said.

While the recent ceasefire in the Middle East was a welcome development, the economic repercussions of the conflict continued to affect countries across Southern Africa through rising fuel prices, increased transportation costs and mounting inflationary pressures, said Botswana UN resident coordinator Wenyan Yang.

Strengthening shock-responsive social protection systems, accelerating economic diversification and deepening regional cooperation through joint procurement mechanisms, strategic reserves and coordinated policy responses were important to enhance resilience against future global shocks, she emphasised.

Businesses and citizens were often the first to experience external shocks, and there was a need to strengthen trade facilitation, harmonise regulations and improve cross-border logistics to enhance regional resilience, said Southern African Development Community Business Council executive secretary Michael Lawrence.

Public, private and nongovernmental participants in the dialogue highlighted the impact of the rising cost of fuel and transportation, increasing inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, higher fertiliser prices and the growing cost of living affecting households across the subregion.

Future responses should prioritise targeted social protection programmes, including cash transfers and transport support for vulnerable households, while safeguarding public investment in health, education and food security.

There is also a need to accelerate implementation of the AfCFTA Agreement, remove non-tariff barriers, strengthen regional value chains, improve trade facilitation and accelerate greater investment in renewable energy, regional fertiliser production and strategic reserves.

Similarly, coordinated regional action through organisations such as Comesa and the Southern African Development Community was important, as stronger intra-African trade and regional cooperation remained the most sustainable buffers against future global shocks, the participants said during the discussions.

“Building resilience requires immediate action rather than reactive responses during crises. Therefore, economies need to be diversified, supply chains need to be strengthened, value addition promoted, energy security enhanced and preparedness for future external shocks, including climate-related risks, improved.”