The insurgency in the northern Mozambique province of Cabo Delgado is rooted in poverty, unemployment, under­development, poor government and gover­nance, and porous borders contributing to human trafficking, drug smuggling and poaching.

While a regional multinational force has been deployed, the gains made, such as the recapture of the towns of Mocimboa da Praia and Palma, were achieved as a result of the with­drawal of the Ansar al-Sunnah insurgents rather than the actions of the security forces, risk analysis and intelligence firm 14 North Strategies Africa analyst Jasmine Opperman  has said.

Durban-headquartered nongovernmental conflict management institution the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (Accord) political analyst Welile Nhlapo commented during a webinar that the conflict was multilayered and included danger over the loss of land and livelihoods, intra-Islamic differences related to different inter­pretations of the faith, intergenerational ten­­sions, resentment over alleged corruption, the disproportionate use of violence by police and private security companies and local people not receiving benefits from inter­national extractive industries.

Informal and illicit economies were also important considerations, Nhlapo said, adding that the political-criminal nexus benefited from both the legal and illicit extraction of natural resources. Further, local community members were often punished for being involved in illicit economic activities and local com­munities were denied the benefit of formal invest­ment and economic development.

“Insurgents stepped into the vacuum and are providing opportunities and mobilising recruits to violently challenge the existing power relations,” he said.

Following five conferences that Accord held with local communities and local reli­gious organisations, the institution has recom­mended that, to solve the conflict, dialogue must be encouraged and knowledge building and sharing must take place in the region. This is a critical factor to ensuring all parties and local communities understand what is happening. Cabo Delgado had had a history of religious harmony and the current situation was out of the ordinary. Interfaith collaboration had dismantled the idea that it was a radical Islamic insurgency that pitted religions against one another, Nhlapo noted.

“The government of Mozambique must 
take control of porous borders to reduce illegal immigration and the flow of foreigners 
marginalising local communities, which con­tributes to unemployment and radicalisation.

“Additionally, better employment oppor­tunities for youth and their recruitment by local companies should be provided. Revenue from multinational operations must be used to build up local development, especially fisheries and mining, which will also lessen the appeal of radicalism.”

The security challenge in Cabo Delgado had captured global attention. The situation endangered tens of thousands of people and had destabilised the north of Mozambique and threatened economic development and foreign direct investment in large-scale infrastructure mining and other projects in the entire Southern African region, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Africa senior researcher Liesl Louw-Vaudran told webinar participants.

“ISS studies confirm that, primarily, the cause is governance challenges. Analysts con­cur that the insurgency is rooted in local grievances and marginalisation and the insurg­ency risks aggravating political and ethnic rivalries and dissatisfaction with govern­ment,” she said.

There were multiple root causes of the insur­gency and, as seen in other similar conflicts on the continent, a lasting solution was needed. Only through long-term development, job creation and rooting out corruption would the crisis be solved, she said.

Additionally, any foreign intervention would prove ineffective because there was no national government strategy, and hence no national security strategy. Without a national security strategy, there was no framework for intel­ligence, law enforcement and armed forces and a disconnect between these necessary ele­ments, private military company Executive Outcomes founder and chairperson Eeben Barlow added.

“Similarly, technology is a force-multiplier, not the force itself. We have a disconnect between reality and what governments think is happening on the continent.

Until we, as a continent, can account and take responsibility for Africa, we will not solve these challenges. We keep looking to someone else to solve our problems, when we have the solutions to our problems,” he said.

Cabo Delgado was being used as a transit route by terrorism group Allied Democratic Force (ADF), which is active in the Democratic Republic of Congo, to South Africa and there were people in South Africa helping with their training and funding, he stated.

“We do not listen to information when it does not match our preferred narrative of the events taking place,” he said.

This had been highlighted by the intel­li­gence failure preceding the insurgency, and the disconnect between all these elements meant that millions could be poured into resolv­ing the conflict without leading to a resolution. 

The problems caused by the lack of a national strategy prevented the Mozambican govern­ment from reaching out to resolve most of the problems, Barlow said.

“We have to realise that a fundamental shift is needed in how we are going to approach the people of Cabo Delgado. The human dignity of the people of Cabo Delgado has been stolen from them, and this view comes out strongly when we listen to internally displaced persons. They long for a return to their lands and way of life,” said Opperman.

Relying on a war-on-terrorism mentality is creating an illusion of victory and the illusion that the insurgents are already defeated. It is also creating the illusion among the people that they are on the brink of moving back to their land, which is not the case, she warned.

“The question in the medium to long term is: Are the forces focused on the correct areas? If we are talking about retaking insurgent locations, they had withdrawn long ago and prior to the Rwandan forces arriving. Our information said it looked like a highway as they left Mocimbao da Praia. Where are they? They did not go to traditional conflict zones.

“These intelligence factors are creating the narrative and informing perception, but do not speak to the reality of what is happening in Cabo Delgado.”

The insurgents had time on their side, while the Southern African Development Community force would not stay longer than the budgeted three months, said Opperman, adding that the insurgents were well-informed in terms of what could be achieved in the long term and it was important not to underestimate them.

In terms of militarisation, she proposed that the gas industry be ignored in the interim to focus on the needs of the people of Cabo Delgado.

“Where security interventions are needed, we are not opposed to them, but they are but a part of the bigger puzzle,” she emphasised.

The most important lessons from the victory of the terrorism group Taliban in Afghanistan was what diplomatic and intelligence failures could end up in, Opperman said.

“Political sanity and situational awareness are important and intelligence services must not only provide a mirror of what the client wants to hear, but the actual state of affairs. If 
the issues at play, not only in a regional con­­text,
remain and are not addressed, the insur­gents will bide their time and then, once the forces return, they will reset them­selves. This is the fundamental lesson from Afghanistan.”

“We are concerned that we are seeing similar dynamics, albeit unintended, playing out in Cabo Delgado. Further, we cannot say that Ansar al-Sunna is an Islamic extremist insur­gency, but rather these diverse root causes that gives a foothold for international ter­rorism groups, including the Islamic State.

“As long as we believe we are winning in Mocimboa [da Praia], Palma and Awasi, we are living in never-never land,” she stated.

Risk management company Focus Group CEO Joe van der Walt said the creation of an exclusion zone by Rwandan forces meant that displaced people would not be coming back to the area.