Global copper mine production is set to expand by 7.8% year-on-year this year as a result of multiple new projects coming online and low-base effects owing to Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Group, says.

The 2021 forecast is primarily underpinned by the start-up of BHP’s Spence Growth Option project, the research firm says, with first production achieved in December 2020.

Output over the next few years is slated to be strong as a number of new projects and expansions come online, supported by rising copper prices and demand, Fitch Solutions notes.

It forecasts global copper mine production to increase by an average of 3.8% a year over 2021 to 2030, with yearly output expected to increase from 20.2-million tonnes in 2020 to 29.4-million tonnes by the end of the decade.

In Chile, Fitch Solutions points out, large-scale miners such as BHP and Teck Resources are leading project development. These miners have been attracted to the country’s well-developed infrastructure, extensive reserves and history of stability.

Fitch Solutions forecasts Chinese copper mine production to increase at an average clip of 1.3% a year over 2021 to 2030, compared with an average growth rate of 6.6% over the prior ten-year period.

This slowdown in production growth will be driven by closures of low-grade copper mines in China and delayed planned capacity expansions; however, the growth in domestic production will still be positive as new projects come online.

Fitch Solutions is maintaining its outlook for Peru’s copper mine production to bounce back strongly this year, growing by 20% year-on-year, as a result of strong low-base effects and new projects coming online.

For the US, it maintains its forecast for copper mine production to growth by 10% this year as the ramp-up of a few new projects supports growth.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Fitch Solutions expects the copper mining sector to see relatively strong growth this year. It forecasts production to grow by 6.9% year-on-year this year.