South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) has recommended that government make an improved carbon-reduction commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and should also confirm a long-term target of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

In a report delivered to President Cyril Ramaphosa on July 1, the PCC argues that South Africa’s target range for 2030 should be lowered to between 350- and 420-million tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO₂-eq).

The draft NDC published for comment by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment in March proposes an emissions range of 398 Mt CO₂-eq to 440 Mt CO₂-eq in 2030, representing a 28% reduction in the upper end of the target range (set at 614 Mt CO₂-eq in South Africa’s current NDC), but no change to the lower end.

In its report, the PCC, established on December 15 to advise government on pathways to transition to a low-carbon economy and climate-resilient society, says that a modest increase in the level of ambition poses little downside risk to the country and offers considerable upside.

Commission deputy chair Valli Moosa says this higher ambition is possible without negatively impacting the economy and will set the stage for longer-term competitiveness and a net increase in jobs.

International support will, however, be needed to accelerate the transition, including for managing the decommissioning process and social adjustment costs in the coal sector.

South Africa, the report notes, is well endowed with renewable resources, with credible modelling showing that an accelerated process of decarbonisation, led initially by the electricity sector, will increase levels of employment compared to the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 baseline.

“There are also considerable health benefits from reduced air pollution impacts and reduced risks posed by climate change, along with improved energy security, reduced climate risks for the industrial and financial sectors, and local manufacturing from green industrialisation.”

The report also highlights modelling by the Energy Systems Research Group indicating that government’s current set of policies, if fully implemented, will likely result in a 2030 emissions level of 371 Mt CO2-eq in a reference growth scenario, and 395 Mt CO2-eq in a high-growth scenario.

“Both of these emission outcomes are below the current proposed NDC emissions target range,” the report notes.

The PCC says that, in advocating for a proactive stance, it is mindful of the enormous challenges South Africa faces in the areas of unemployment, poverty and inequality.

“South Africa is committed to a just transition to a net-zero and climate resilient society. Justice must be both procedural, ensuring that the most climate-vulnerable groups (in particular women and young people) participate in decision-making, and substantive, through climate-compatible development that addresses the needs of vulnerable workers (employed and unemployed) and communities.”

South Africa’s coal-heavy State-owned electricity utility Eskom, which has participated in all PCC meetings, has established a Just Energy Transition Office, which is aiming to secure green finance for plans to repower and repurpose those coal-fired power stations that are scheduled for decommissioning in the coming few years.

Reuters reports that Eskom is pitching a $10-billion plan that would see it shut the vast majority of its coal-fired plants by 2050, while embracing renewable energy. Discussions, the report states, have already started with development finance institutions such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank.

The PCC says the transition to a decarbonised economy has to be carefully managed and that the social and economic costs for vulnerable groups should be factored into the planning process to ensure that the economic opportunities of the transition are fairly distributed.

“Accordingly, the PCC believes that the NDC should reflect an approach that is socially just, evidence-based and ambitious.”

Ramaphosa welcomed the report and said that the recommendations, together with those made during the public consultation process, would be considered and form part of Cabinet’s deliberations as it finalises the revised NDC.

South Africa will submit its updated NDC at the COP26 climate talks, scheduled for Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

“The country’s emissions targets are fundamental not only to our transition to a low-carbon economy; they are also critical in influencing the pace and the nature of our country’s transformation.

“A more ambitious approach to reducing our emissions must be accompanied by greater attention to the work we must do to protect communities, jobs and the broader economy from the effects of climate change,” Ramaphosa said in a statement.