The Shanxi coal disaster is likely to hit Chinese output in the short term, raising costs for steelmakers, power plants and chemicals manufacturers.

The explosion at a coking coal mine that killed at least 82 last week has triggered a wave of self-inspections across the country as well as halts to pits in the province itself. The central government has set up a team to review safety measures nationwide. Output in Shanxi, the top producing province in April with 107-million tons, is likely to drop 8% in May, according to an industry group.

But the curbs should be brief, perhaps lasting a week, Li Xiaolong, an analyst at the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, said on Wednesday. “Massive production cuts are unlikely, as authorities tend to avoid one-size-fits-all restrictions heading into the critical summer period,” he said.

Shanxi produces about 1.3-billion tons of coal a year, a third of China’s yearly output. At least 109 mines, accounting for nearly 10% of the province’s total, have reportedly been suspended, according to Jefferies Financial Group.

The area around the disaster is a hub for steelmaking coal in particular. Coking coal prices showed the biggest immediate reaction to the accident, the deadliest since 2009. Dalian futures closed on Wednesday with an 11% gain for the week. But the impact is likely to be cushioned as more shipments arrive from Mongolia, China’s biggest overseas supplier of coking coal, and Russia.

China’s much larger market for thermal coal has only edged higher, to 846 yuan ($125) a ton as of Wednesday, according to CCTD, from 833 a yuan at the start of the week.

SUMMER HEAT

But the pressure is likely to build. Power consumption in southern China hit a record high on Monday, with the seasonal peak arriving about a month earlier than usual. The spot power price index in Guangdong, the country’s economic powerhouse, has surged 40% this week, according to the local exchange.

Hot, humid weather linked to El Niño has lifted temperatures and triggered flooding and power outages in parts of the south, complicating efforts to maintain energy security alongside tighter safety checks. Authorities have also warned of elevated mudslide risks that could further constrain mining activity.

More prolonged interruptions to coal output could also ripple through into a variety of related industries.

China’s push to revive its coal-to-chemicals industry, a hedge against supply disruptions to oil and gas from the Middle East, could suffer, according to SDIC Futures Co.

Less output of coal-bed methane, a substitute for conventional natural gas that Shanxi specializes in, could tighten gas markets, said JLC, a Chinese consultancy. Conversely, fewer coal shipments could weaken demand for liquefied natural gas, a key haulage fuel, it said.