China dominates global aluminium industry

China continues to dominate the global aluminium 
industry, accounting for one-third of world production and world consumption of primary aluminium, according to metals and minerals consultancy 
Roskill Information Services’ ‘The Economics of Aluminium 9th Edition’ report.

While China is self-sufficient in aluminium metal and is 
approaching self-sufficiency 
in alumina, dependence on 
imported bauxite remains high, despite rising output. However, power-supply issues and high costs of production could result 
in declining production in the long term and the possibility that China will become a net importer 
of primary aluminium, states the report.

Russia, Canada, the US, Aus-tralia, Brazil, Norway and India are the principal producing countries after China, together 
accounting for about three-quarters of world output of primary aluminium.

The report indicates that, 
although some 200 smelters, half of which are in China, produce primary aluminium, 14 companies, operating about 100 plants, controlled over 60% of output in 2007. Consolidation of Russian aluminium producers Rusal and Sual with commodities and raw materials supplier Glencore, in 2006, into UC Rusal and the acquisition of aluminium wire and cable manufacturer Alcan by mining giant Rio Tinto, in 2007, resulted in two aluminium producers comparable in size to the world’s leading producer of primary aluminium, fabricated aluminium and alumina, Alcoa.

World aluminium output rose by between 0,15% and 12,2% a year between 1994 and 2008, 
averaging 5% a year. Growth 
averaged around 7% a year after 2001, mainly owing to explosive expansion in production in China. Output began to contract in the second half of 2008 and this accelerated in 2009, meaning that world aluminium production is likely to decline for the first time in 15 years and by as much as 5%.

In 2009, almost 50 aluminium 
smelter projects, with a total 
capacity of 20-million tons a year, were at different stages of development, but only ten, with a total capacity of 2,8-million tons a year, were already under construction. The report states that for most of these projects, no 
decision with regard to timing has been finalised and the timetables of the others are under review. At the same time, most of the significant producers are idling high-cost and inefficient capacity in response to low 
demand and prices.

The earliest significant project to come on line will probably be Qatalum, in Qatar, a joint venture between national oil and gas company Qatar Petroleum and pipe network and accessories 
provider Hydro, which is likely 
to be a low-cost producer. During 2008, a new 300-million-ton-a-year smelter started operations in Oman and UC Rusal 
restarted output in Nigeria.

Reported production, which excludes as much as two-million tons in China, of refined secondary aluminium and aluminium alloy amounted to about 8,8-million tons in 2007, 
mainly in the US, Japan, Ger-many and Italy. A further 3-million tons a year to 3,5-million tons 
a year of secondary aluminium is recovered directly into end uses. US-based recyclers of aluminium 
and zinc Aleris International, owned by global private investment firm Texas Pacific and formed in 2004 by the merger of recycling firm Imco Recycling and aluminium sheet manufacturer Commonwealth Industries, is probably the world’s largest aluminium recycling company.

Aluminum rolling and recycling company Novelis, which acquired Alcan’s secondary 
facilities in the US and Hydro Aluminium North Amnerica is 
a significant aluminium recycler. 
Used beverage cans are the largest source of scrap and raw mate-
rial for secondary aluminium ingots.

Recovery in Aluminium Consumption to Begin in 2010
Between 1998 and 2007, world primary aluminium consumption grew by a year-on-year average of 5,6% to reach 37,2-million tons. After a fall of 5,3% in 2001, aluminium consumption increased by an average of 7,8% a year up to 2007, largely driven by Chinese consumption, which increased by an average of 23,7% a year up to 2007.

Chinese aluminium consumption is, by a sizeable margin, the largest in the world, having overtaken US consumption in 2004. Japan is the third-largest consuming country.

Total use of aluminium, includ-
ing all forms of secondary metal, amounted to about 51-million tons a year in 2007 and was probably little changed in 2008.

The Chinese market, which accounts for almost 30% of the world total in 2007 and 2008, expanded by about 27% in 2007. China metal information network Antaike estimates that it increased by about 8% in 2008 and will increase by 3% in 2009.

The report states that, in Europe, North America and Japan, demand will almost certainly fall in 2009 and will either 
level out or show nominal growth in 2010. The market will start to recover in the second half of 2010 and global growth of 4% to 5%, led by China, is likely in 2011. Average growth in the global aluminium market to 2013 will probably be about 2,6% a year, resulting in total demand of about 58-million tons.

Large stock Overhang Depressing Prices
The London Metal Exchange (LME) monthly average cash price for high-grade aluminium fell from a record high of 
$3 070/t in July 2008 to $1 329/t in February, as LME stocks 
increased from 1,1-million tons to 3,2-million tons.

There were signs that prices had bottomed out in March or April 2009 and had stabilised between $1 400/t and $1 500/t. Lower production and the end of destocking are expected to stop or reverse the increase in 
inventories and push prices up to 
between $1 500/t and $1 700/t by September or October 2009, and may reach $1 800/t by year-end, according to the report.

This year, aluminium prices will probably average $1 400/t to $1 450/t. The large stocks are expected to overhang the market until the slide in global demand is reversed, which most analysts expect to happen in early 2010.

In the early and mid 2000s, cash production costs for primary 
aluminium rose steeply to a global average of almost $2 000/t, mainly because of increased alumina and power costs. Alumina prices have fallen with those of aluminium, but power costs 
remain high and prices in early 2009 were less than the costs of many producers.

Electrical power and alumina are the most costly inputs in the production of primary alu-
minium. 
A secure, low-cost and proximal supply of power is a more important factor than either nearby raw materials or markets when deciding on a location for an aluminium smelter. The presence of large smelters in Bahrain, Dubai, Oman, South Africa, Mozambique and Iceland is evidence of this. Countries such as Canada and Norway take advantage of plentiful hydroelectricity and nearby markets.