Central and East Africa’s mining sectors are undergoing a profound structural shift, driven by “explosive” demand for cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium and rare earth elements, which has seen a “massive surge” in exploration and infrastructure development that is reshaping the region’s economic geography, says advocacy and innovation practice Africa Practice principal adviser Daniel Thole.

From the Atlantic coast of Angola to the Indian Ocean ports of Tanzania and Kenya, he says regional governments are leveraging their significant geological wealth to demand a fundamental rewriting of global supply chain dynamics.

“In line with the Africa Green Minerals Strategy, the focus has shifted from the historical ‘extract and export’ model toward in-country beneficiation, tighter regulatory frameworks and strategic cross-border logistics.”

However, the region’s mineral abundance has triggered intense geopolitical competition between Western nations and China, says Thole, adding that for over a decade, Chinese entities maintained a near-monopoly on processing and mining infrastructure, particularly within the DRC’s copper and cobalt networks, while Western powers are countering this with measures to secure independent supply lines.

The prime battleground for this competition is logistics, he states, adding that the flagship such Western-backed initiative is the Lobito Corridor – an integrated rail-and-port network linking the mineral-rich interior of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to Angola’s Lobito port.

Backed by a $753-million financing package, including a $553-million loan from the US International Development Finance Corporation, Thole says the corridor aims to reduce transport times to European and American markets.

“By providing an alternative to traditional, eastbound routes often dominated by Chinese logistics networks, the West is attempting to anchor its industrial security directly to African soil.”

Exploration Budgets Surging, Beyond the Copperbelt

Over the past five years, Thole says mineral exploration spending in Africa experienced a major, commodity-driven resurgence compared to the stagnant previous five years.

Between 2016 and 2020, severe regulatory uncertainty caused regional budgets to contract sharply, with Africa’s total exploration allocations bottoming out at just $840-million in 2020, he says.

However, Thole notes that the subsequent five years witnessed a “powerful” capital reversal driven by “explosive” global demand for critical minerals, lifting the continent’s yearly baseline exploration spending to an average of $1.2-billion, and adding momentum to East and Central Africa’s emergence as a highly-prospective region.