US aerospace giant Boeing has highlighted its forecast that African airlines will need 1 010 new aircraft, with a total value of $176-billion, by 2041. This demand will be driven by robust increases in African domestic, intra-regional and inter-regional air passenger traffic, predicted by Boeing to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.1%.

“African carriers are well-positioned to support inter-regional traffic growth and capture market share by offering services that efficiently connect passengers and enable commerce within the continent,” affirmed Boeing Commercial Marketing: Middle East and Africa MD Randy Heisey. “We forecast an increase in the average aircraft size and seats per aircraft for the African fleet, as mid-size, single-aisles, like the Boeing 737 MAX, will be the most in demand for the continent.”

So far this year, African air traffic has displayed a strong rate of recovery. Driving this has been economic growth impelled by higher global prices for commodities and the release of pent-up travel demand, following the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, African airlines are now operating 80% of their pre-pandemic flights.

For the future, Africa’s annual economic growth rate of 3.1% is above the global average figure. Urbanisation continues to increase and middle-class populations are growing across the continent. These factors will continue to drive the growth in the continent’s air traffic. Further, the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Single African Air Transport Market are predicted to boost intra-regional air connectivity.

Boeing forecasts that, between now and 2041, African air passenger traffic will grow at 5.2% annually (the global average growth will be 3.8%), leading to the African airlines increasing their fleets at a yearly rate of 3.5%. More than 70% (in numbers, 740) of the new airliners that African operators will acquire will be single-aisle types. But the continent’s carriers will also need 250 wide-body aircraft, both passenger and freighter aeroplanes, to meet future long-haul passenger and air cargo demands.

Of the forecast acquisitions, 20% will be to replace older airliners and 80% will be to grow airline fleets. The future acquisitions will be more fuel-efficient and sustainable aircraft, such as Boeing’s 737 MAX, 777X and 787 Dreamliner.

In terms of personnel, over the next 20 years, African airlines will need 20 000 new pilots, 21 000 new technicians and 26 000 new cabin crew members. Manufacturing, repair, overhaul and supply chain services to support these new aircraft are predicted to be worth $80-billion.