The Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan has raised global risk antennae on several fronts and South Africa would do well to follow proceedings closely and with deep concern, professional risk management body the Institute of Risk Management South Africa (IRMSA) says.

“While indications of change in the country were evident for some weeks after the US announced its military departure, it was the speed of change that seemed to surprise the most.

“There are obvious parallels with what happened in South Africa recently during the attempted insurgency and how quickly the violence spiralled out of control. This must be a stark warning to risk professionals as to how quickly events can escalate and therefore to make sure that response and contingency plans are in place,” IRMSA CEO Pat Semenya notes. 

Semenya suggests that organisations reappraise their political risk plans with a view to ensuring safety and continuity.

Among IRMSA’s recommendations are to ensure tactics are in place to prepare and protect staff; ensure supply chains can withstand unplanned disruptions; and reassess all credit lines and risks.

Semenya also says political risk insurance should constantly be evaluated and updated and suggests that risk professionals develop strategies around alliances with local companies to ensure a degree of herd safety and protection.

She notes that organisations should have a clear understanding of the political environment they are working in and, where necessary, engage in consultations with government and political leaders.

Further, the IRMSA points out that the Afghanistan takeover has also raised the spectre, once again, of international terror attacks, as geopolitical experts are warning that the country could again become a breeding ground for extremists.

“While South Africa mercifully remains on the margins of any frontline terror threat, the shift in political power in Afghanistan has altered global dynamics and it’s imperative that South African leaders take cognisance of this and factor this into medium- and long-term planning,” Semenya says.

The IRMSA says there is no question that global financial markets will be affected in the coming weeks as the situation in Afghanistan remains fluid and volatile.

Investors, including those in South Africa, are watching closely to see how matters unfold in coming weeks, the body notes.

“Given the current fragility of our economy and our urgent need for new foreign direct investment, international investor caution, while understandable, could result in decisions being postponed.

“If that happens, there are negative consequences in terms of South Africa’s growth trajectory,” Semenya notes.

The IRMSA says the situation in Afghanistan is a global event of significant importance and warns that the effects will be felt for years to come.

It says that events should be seen as a clear indication of how the social, economic and political framework of the world is shifting and a salutary warning to risk professionals to have the right proactive strategies constantly in place.