PERTH (miningweekly.com) – The Office of the Chief Economist has upwardly revised the export earnings expectations for 2018/19, from the previous estimate of A$264-billion to A$278-billion.

The revised outlook came on the back of stronger iron-ore prices and a modestly weaker exchange rate, along with stronger coal exports both in terms of prices and volumes.

The new estimate was an increase of more than A$50-billion in value on the 2017/18 figures, federal Resources Minister Matt Canavan pointed out.

“The living standards of Australians rely in large part on maintaining a strong resources sector,” Canavan said.

“Even if you don't work in resources, the revenue that the industry brings in helps pay for schools, hospitals and other services. Surging tax revenues from the resource industry have helped bring our budget back into balance and export dollars from coal, iron and gas help increase our dollar's value, increasing the buying power of all Australian consumers.

“Our commodity exports are expected to earn more than A$1.5-trillion for the nation over the next six years.”

The Office of the Chief Economist on Friday said that iron-ore exports earnings in 2018/19 are expected to reach A$74-billion, up from the A$63-billion reported in 2017/18, on the back of higher prices.

Australia is anticipated to export some 847-million tonnes of iron-ore in 2018/19.

Metallurgical coal exports in the same period are expected to contribute a record A$43-billion in earnings, with volumes growing from 179-million tonnes in 2017/18 to 203-million tonnes by 2022/23.

Thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of A$27-billion tonnes in the year ahead, up from the existing record of A$23-billion tonnes, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will increase from A$32-billion to A$51-billion in 2019/20, with LNG export volumes increasing from the 62-million tonnes exported in 2017/18 to 82-million tonnes in 2019/20.

“Australia’s LNG export earnings are expected to jump by A$18-billion to A$50-billion this financial year – the largest increase of any commodity over the year.

“We expect Australia will again overtake Qatar in 2019 to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG. The discovery of substantial shale gas resources in the Beetaloo sub-basin in the Northern Territory represents a longer-term opportunity which will allow for even more growth in the future,” said Canavan.

Australia’s aluminum, alumina and bauxite export earnings will decline from the A$14-billion projected in 2018/19, to A$13-billion by 2023/24, reflecting a decline in alumina prices, while copper export earnings will increase from the A$8.6-billion in 2017/18, to A$10.8-billion by 2023/24. Nickel export earnings will also increase from the A$3.2-billion projected in 2018/19, to A$4.6-billion by 2023/24.

The Minister on Friday noted that mining investment was also picking up, rising 7% from the September quarter, which was good news for Australia’s regions, where much of that mining investment occurs.