Climate change is one of the most direct threats to development confronting developing countries, as they will suffer the brunt of the impacts despite historically contributing the least towards global carbon emissions.  

These regions are therefore not exempt from participating in tackling climate change, but should insist on ambitious actions and meaningful support from countries that have contributed the most to the problem.

There must also be an emphasis that any transition must be just and that it will play out on many levels, including community, domestically, regionally and globally, and an analysis of each of these is required.

Moreover, solutions must go beyond just mitigating emissions and have to also balance adapting to climate change.  

There is also the need to support the loss and damages that will occur as a result of climate change, despite the best efforts to address it, especially for those countries that lack the resources to do so and have contributed the least to it.

This, and other themes, were some of the key areas that would frame South Africa and Africa’s approach to the twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties (COP28), which would be hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this year in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Climate and Natural Resources Programme head Alex Benkenstein outlined during a webinar on November 27.

Benkenstein averred that COP28 came at a time of heightened geopolitical volatility, especially in the Middle East. He added that the Republican-controlled US Congress, economic headwinds in China and the ongoing diplomatic and financial ramifications of the war in Ukraine had further dampened expectations of significant outcomes at COP28.

However, Benkenstein highlighted that there had also been recent developments that support a more optimistic view, including that negotiating parties had agreed that the Loss and Damage Fund would be hosted by the World Bank.

He explained that, while this was not the outcome the global South had desired, it was willing to concede on this so that COP28 could go ahead with basic parameters for the fund.

He added that this would allow for real financial commitments to be made towards the fund, with there already being signals that the European Union, for example, was ready to make some big announcements at COP28 in this regard.

Another positive development is that the world’s largest carbon emitters, China and the US, have agreed to work more closely on combatting climate change, with a series of multilateral forums, such as the G20 Summit, which included renewed commitments to addressing climate change and facilitating a just energy transition (JET).  

Benkenstein said another positive development was that the UAE, as the host, had set out ambitious objectives that were aligned with some key points that Africa had prioritised, including pursuing a JET, addressing climate finance, supporting nature-based solutions, prioritising lives and livelihoods, and promoting an inclusive COP28 process.

Also, he said that while Africa had always had a strong group of negotiators with fairly consistent messages at COP, it had now bolstered its work in setting out the framework and messaging of what it needed, with new policy instruments gleaned in the last year.

This includes the Nairobi Declaration, a clear statement of Africa’s needs and priorities, which emerged from the pioneer Africa Climate Summit held in September.

The Nairobi Declaration is aligned with the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan, which was adopted in February 2022 and sets a framework for climate action in Africa, including external partnerships around financing, adaptation and other priority areas.

One of the areas of focus for the region at COP28 would be increasing the scale and accessibility of climate finance, Benkenstein said. He noted that this had been an important message for some time now, and while this would still continue to be pursued, there would also be a shift towards seeing this as part of the broader efforts of reforming the global financial system and addressing the structural issues herein.

In terms of the JET, Benkenstein averred that more financing packages would be required, such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership that South Africa was engaged in, with more countries indicated to be pursuing such deals too.

Benkenstein emphasised that key to such deals would be for countries to maintain their agency and external stakeholders to support a process that was driven by domestic actors in an inclusive manner.

In terms of mitigation of emissions, he said there needed to be ambitious targets from the largest historical contributors.

Benkenstein touched on an area of controversy being reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, with many stakeholders unwilling to engage with fossil fuel companies. He, however, called for a more pragmatic approach, noting that fossil fuels would have to be considered part of the solution, and discussions required around carbon capture and storage and other emerging technologies.

He also highlighted the need to mobilise domestic resources for finance, as this would be required in conjunction with international assistance.

In terms of climate adaptation, Benkenstein said a key point for COP28 would be more work on the Global Goal on Adaptation. He said since this was agreed upon on at COP27, frameworks and operationalisation were now required from this year. 

Another key theme would be around nature-based solutions, which Benkenstein said had also been a key focus area for SAIIA for several years.

Lastly, he emphasised the imperativeness of inclusivity, and ensuring that all processes aspired for this and that a sense of agency was maintained. 

This would be multifaceted, including considerations of gender and global dynamics. Benkenstein also emphasised the that youth need to be fundamentally included, with their agency recognised in leading and shaping climate change responses.