S&P flags Middle East oil risk for South Africa, warns low growth an outlier among peers
S&P Global Ratings warned on Tuesday that rising oil prices from the Middle East crisis pose a growing risk to South Africa's consumer-led economy, even as the fiscal consolidation push remains broadly on track.
Ravi Bhatia, director at S&P, said at a conference in Johannesburg that South Africa was “really an outlier” among peers, consistently ranking near the bottom on growth — a weakness that feeds into fiscal pressure through softer revenues and weak job creation.
S&P left its South Africa ratings unchanged at BB on foreign-currency and BB+ on local on Friday.
It had upgraded ratings in November, its first upward move in nearly two decades, citing falling inflation, improving growth and fiscal consolidation.
S&P revised its oil price forecast to $100 for the rest of the year and $75 next year, with knock-on effects expected for inflation, fertiliser and food costs.
South Africa inflation rose in April, largely tied to the energy sector; the central bank responded quickly with rate hikes, though higher borrowing costs risk dampening consumer spending.
Fuel levy cuts on the energy side were described as fiscally neutral, offset by commodity-driven revenue; a possible extension of the levies with a later fiscal adjustment remains an option.
Progress on Transnet and private sector involvement in ports are incremental, and "not a game changer on the growth story", Bhatia said.
The country lacks a comprehensive growth strategy, he said, noting other countries have plans built around pushing forward high-growth "unicorn companies" while South Africa's approach has been more about fixing problems.
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